3 things to know before betting Kentucky Downs' races
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Serious bettors love Kentucky Downs for two main reasons: large fields
and low takeout. Somehow, the racetrack has found ways to please both sides of
racing, as purses bolstered by on-site instant racing machines encourage horsemen to take their shot, and the consistently low takeout leads to annual praise by the Horseplayers Association of North America.
This meet, the turf-only racetrack will hold races starting Saturday, followed by Sept. 6, 8, 9 and 13.
• RELATED: Free full card Kentucky Downs win picks
Fans can find little to criticize with Kentucky Downs, aside from some odd camera
angles for the simulcast feed. But the track does take a while to get used to
beyond that. To help, here are three things to know about Kentucky Downs.
1. European-style configuration
Kentucky Downs is a long racetrack. It takes 1 5/16 miles to take one trip
around the turf course, while the average American racetrack features a
one-mile dirt course and an even shorter turf course. So this is long.
Besides the length, there are noticeable changes in elevation for the horses to
encounter, making it closer to how European courses are set up.
Furthermore, it is a European-style course. The first turn is
straightforward, but on the far side the horses slant right.
Then on the far turn, they go right even more sharply, before going around the
turn in a big, swooping manner and finally straightening out for a shorter
stretch run. It is an odd, but fun track configuration.
2. Certain jockeys/trainers excel at this course
Because of the odd track configuration, it makes sense that some jockeys and
trainers love this course more than others.
Just take a look at the most
winning jockeys over the past five years, as shown on Twitter by Brisnet's Ed DeRosa:
According to DeRosa, Florent Geroux is the leading jockey over the past five
years with 33 wins, while Julien Leparoux is second with 23 wins. Standard
enough. Those two jockeys are considered excellent turf riders anywhere.
Both, perhaps coincidentally, are French. Could that be the key to becoming a proficient turf rider on this course?
In third-place is Rosie Napravnik, and that is interesting because she has been
retired for a while now. It only shows that this is a “jockey-for
course” type of track. Otherwise, someone else would have caught her by now.
DeRosa also posted the most trainer wins over the past five years:
The fact that Michael Maker is way ahead with 34 wins is not surprising, given
his relationship with leading Kentucky owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, along with their Kitten’s Joy
progeny.
For bettors, they might be relieved to know Chad Brown is not a presence here, as his horses are routinely overbet at major circuits on the turf.
3) Track is known for a speed bias, but can be fair
Some sharp handicappers believe Kentucky Downs favors speed, especially in
sprints. But after reviewing 2017 replays, it is impossible to
conclude any speed bias.
In fact, the standard race flow for the most part resembled most any turf
course in North America, with the final move resulting
in success.
For example, take a look at the 2017 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes.
The 5/2 Commend tucked in early right behind the two longshot leaders, while Hogy,
also at 5/2, settled around seventh and wide.
On the far turn, Hogy made a
sweeping wide move and ultimately prevailed past the ground-saving Commend. A closer position did not help.
On the same card, almost the same scenario played out in the Kentucky Turf Cup
(G3).
The 5/2 Postulation saved all the ground right behind the leaders, and the 7/2
Oscar Nominated settled a few lengths farther back and slightly wide.
On the far turn, Oscar Nominated continued to run wide, while Postulation
switched outside to set himself up for the stretch run. Oscar Nominated mowed
him down with a powerful outside move.
Was there a speed bias in previous years? Maybe.
But Kentucky Downs might play fairer than bettors think. As always, observe any patterns and adjust accordingly. Watch for any sprint
biases.
With so few opportunities to play it, Kentucky Downs is sure to show some quirks to other players. Anything stick out to you? Let us know here in the comments.
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