Analysis: The Tabulator benefits from class relief in Iowa Derby

For pace analysts, The Tabulator comes out of an interesting race heading into the $250,000 Iowa Derby on Friday at Prairie Meadows. He ran in an extremely tough Woody Stephens (G2) on the Belmont Stakes undercard, and now faces easier foes.

In fact, the now-ungraded Iowa Derby is only rated 113 on the TimeformUS class scale, while the Woody Stephens received a 122. That is a notable drop in class.

But what makes the Woody Stephens interesting is the pace, as Promises Fulfilled rattled off some insane fractions, as usual, blasting in 21.46, 43.68 and 1:08.43. Subsequently, TimeformUS marked all three fractions in red. They also gave pace figures of 175, 150 and 128 to Promises Fulfilled for setting the pace.

The Tabulator did run too far behind that pace, sitting three lengths off in the first call and a little closer in the second call, before calling it quits and fading. But he received initial pace figures of 161 and 146, which are high. With the “weight off” function on TimeformUS, those numbers become 157 and 142 -- still high marks.

A couple of other Iowa Derby runners pressed fast paces, too, such as Battle at Sea and Believe in Royalty. But they did so against lesser competition.

For example, Battle at Sea shows some red fractions on TimeformUS. He ran in the lowly Louisiana Legends Cheval Stakes, though, at Evangeline Downs. 

As for Believe in Royalty, this is a Tapit colt whose dam, Believe You Can, won the 2012 Kentucky Oaks. His top pedigree has helped little, though, as he set a fast pace in a Churchill Downs allowance race before fading 10 lengths away.

Considering The Tabulator ran against some real runners at Belmont, he should handle those pace opponents with ease. At least, on paper it seems that way.

There is a third early speed horse shown on Pace Projector, Cool Bobby. However, he only ran in two races as a 2-year-old, and his actual style is still unclear.

The Tabulator might face some stiff closing competition from High North, who recently ran fourth in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont. High North had never tried nine furlongs before the Peter Pan, and maybe the distance proved too long.

But two races ago, High North won the Northern Spur Stakes at the 1 1/16-mile distance in an improved performance with blinkers on. If he can repeat that effort at the same distance here, it might be good enough to win from off the pace.

Mr. Freeze will get attention as a 2-for-2 horse with wins at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. TimeformUS gave a class rating of 113 for the Churchill race, the same class rating as this Iowa Derby. With pace help, he can close for a piece.

It should be noted that the runner-up from the Churchill race, Come On Dover, returned to finish fifth in another allowance spot.

Fort Peck finished fourth in Mr. Freeze’s Churchill win, and this gelding comes into Prairie Meadows sporting the same connections as Fort Larned. Pedigree enthusiasts will also note Fort Peck’s fourth dam and Fort Larned’s second dam, the great Bayakoa.

The numbers are low for Fort Peck, and he lost to Mr. Freeze twice already. But it is not impossible for lightly-raced 3-year-olds like this one to suddenly improve.

As for the second choice on the morning line, Lionite, one can only reason the oddsmaker is biased towards him for winning the local Prairie Mile Stakes. TimeformUS gave a class rating of 103 for the race, and he earned a lowly 104 with the “weight off."

To be fair, Steve Asmussen is the trainer, and he gives the mount to trusted jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. again. Regardless, the horse is underlaid if he holds at 3-1.

To touch upon Cool Bobby one more time, not only is this horse’s running style uncertain after two starts, but his talent is unclear as well. He cost six figures and ran first and second in his only two starts. He could be a top-level horse, and was discussed as a Kentucky Derby prospect before developing an ankle chip that required surgery.

The Tabulator and High North hold the experience and class edge, and bettors should focus on those two before considering others for the top spot.