Kentucky Derby 2021: Why I'm willing to toss this favorite

Form-wise, there is nothing too wrong with Essential Quality heading into the 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The son of Tapit enters as the probable favorite with five wins in five starts including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and recently the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on the Derby trail at Keeneland.

But the Derby is increasingly falling into the hands of front-runners. More than a week ago, trainer Bob Baffert opted not to start Concert Tour. In the past two days, trainer Brad Cox made it known that Caddo River was going to skip the race.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Rock Your World is supposed to hold an uncontested lead over Medina Spirit, with another gap to the rest of the speed such as Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich. Even though Pace Projector calls for a fast pace, speed has been holding up in the Kentucky Derby point era, as opposed to when the top graded stakes earners comprised the 20-horse field.

Oh the Pace Projector graphic, Essential Quality does not even reach the first two trios of horses behind Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. Instead, he is shown in mid-pack.

In a 20-horse field, traveling in mid-pack or farther can prove tough because of the traffic. On the second turn, the fat part of the field turns chaotic with speed horses folding and closers attempting to navigate their way through the pinball machine.

Assuming Pace Projector is accurate, it makes no sense to rely on Essential Quality at a short price with all the traffic issues awaiting him when Rock Your World and Medina Spirit project to enjoy clear trips in the 1-2 positions all around the track.

Perhaps Pace Projector gets this one wrong and Essential Quality finds himself contesting the lead with Rock Your World early or following closely in second or third. After all, Essential Quality has an aggressive jockey in Luis Saez aboard.

Well, that is possible. Essential Quality has been praised as a versatile runner, including by this writer. Maybe Saez asks him for early speed. 

To point out something about Essential Quality's versatility, though, it appears he moves into a pressing role only by default when the race lacks pace. His TimeformUS Pace Figures do not change a whole lot, and therefore he drops back when the tempo does heat up significantly. For example, Essential Quality could not keep up with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pace last fall despite pressing in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1).

This year, Essential Quality went into the pressing role outside of Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass Stakes, but the two of them went in a mild 23.83 and 48.21 for the first half-mile. Those are not exactly blazing fractions. Essential Quality put up only moderate 123 and 116 TimeformUS Pace Figures for those first two fractions.

In contrast, Rock Your World set fractions of 22.42 and 46.11 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) with pace figures of 148 and 148. Medina Spirit went into the stalking role with 143 and 145 pace figures for the first two fractions. Even as a stalker, Medina Spirit went faster than Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes.

If Saez sends Essential Quality to mix it up with Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, there is no guarantee he will survive a faster pace for the first time. If Essential Quality runs as a mid-pack closer type, he might become stuck in traffic. On paper, it looks like a lose-lose situation. 

Of course, a fast pace is not supposed to “help” Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. But at least those two runners know what a fast pace feels like and enter better equipped to handle grueling fractions up front. In Medina Spirit’s case, he also set a blazing pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) with a pair of 151 pace figures before holding on.

This is a tough call, but Essential Quality is not the right horse to use on top. If he wins, then he wins, but his value feels below that of Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. Perhaps Essential Quality gets a spot in the third slot of a trifecta. On top, though, bettors need to make hard decisions in a 20-horse field, and this is mine.