That figures: Kukulkan improved, but enough to win a Grade 2?

Mexican star Kukulkan rebounded from his 11th-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) on Friday to win a high-level optional claimer at Churchill Downs, defeating a few notable horses along the way, including graded stakes winners Hawaakom and My Boy Jack.

Based on his speed figures from the victory, there are two important takeaways: Kukulkan is an improved horse compared to his Gulfstream Park form over the winter, but he isn't ready for Grade 1 competition yet in the U.S.

For the optional claiming win, Kukulkan earned a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 88 Beyer Speed Figure. He did improve over his two prior races, as he picked up a 97 and 71, respectively, in the Clasico del Caribe back in December. He also ran a 98 on TimeformUS in the Pegasus World Cup.

Given the difference is 13 or 14 points on TimeformUS and 17 points on Beyer, Kukulkan has improved by a noticeable margin. Assuming those numbers are accurate, the current form is closer to a Grade 3 contender.

Two explanations for the change are possible. Since Kukulkan (unofficially) joined the Ignacio Correas barn for recent training, it is plausible he found a way to improve the horse compared to record conditioner Fausto Gutierrez.

Correas has a solid record of acclimating foreign-based horses to American soil.

On that note, a second explanation is time. Think about South American runners and how much time they need in order to feel comfortable here. One example is Wow Cat, who looked flat in her stateside debut for Chad Brown, but eventually finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Wow Cat needed a few months to cycle into her top form. Now it has been almost six months since Kukulkan’s North American debut at Gulfstream and five months since the Pegasus World Cup. After the Pegasus, he ended up staying here to train, giving him all the time in the world to adapt.

So, what if he was this good all along? After all, Kukulkan has now won 15 of 16 career starts.

A third explanation is that the speed figures were wrong in the first place and underrated Kukulkan. They do incorporate handicapping and opinion.

Regardless, it is time to focus on the “here and now.” Right now, Kukulkan is a horse capable of earning a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 88 Beyer.

Kukulkan’s connections mentioned the June 15 Stephen Foster (G2) as an option moving forward. Is this optional claiming winner good enough?

To put Kukulkan’s numbers into perspective, Gift Box ran a 127 on TimeformUS and 102 Beyer Figure when he won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Also, McKinzie earned a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 109 Beyer Figure in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) earlier this month at Churchill Downs.

Kukulkan’s 111 and 88 look weak in comparison.

But what if Kukulkan catches a softer field for this newly turned Grade 2 race?

Tenfold, Yoshida, Seeking the Soul and Quip are all possible to show up.

Tenfold recently won the Pimlico Special with a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Yoshida ran a 122 in his sixth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational.

Seeking the Soul earned a 120 when third to McKinzie in the Alysheba.

Quip earned a 120 as well when he won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).

Kukulkan’s optional claiming win only reaches Tenfold’s level, and Tenfold won a Grade 3 race at Pimlico. If the connections tried to spot Kukulkan in a soft Grade 3 similar to the Pimlico Special, he could win.

The Stephen Foster looks too tough. He either needs to make another step forward, or prove he won the optional claiming race without his best effort. Correas is a good trainer, but can he make this horse 10 points better in a few weeks?

Also, Hawaakom and My Boy Jack were mentioned as also-rans in Kukulkan’s win. But it is arguable that neither of them possess any nice current form.

Hawaakom’s age makes him a senior citizen at 9, and My Boy Jack was always overrated. The public could not bet him enough in the Kentucky Derby.

Ballard High ran second by 1 1/2 lengths to Kukulkan. What has he accomplished? Where would Ballard High finish if he ran in the Stephen Foster?

Kukulkan improved in the past few months, but if he runs in the Stephen Foster it will provide another opportunity for the public to play against an underlay. Betting is not about chasing personal favorites.

The underlaid price on Kukulkan will not look as dramatic in the Stephen Foster as it did in the Pegasus given his speed figure from last weekend is respectable. But if he runs in the Stephen Foster, he fits as an underneath player at most.