Analysis: Taiba takes Malibu at less than ideal distance

Taiba entered the Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita as the class horse, and he proved why after defeating his fellow 3-year-olds for his third overall Grade 1 win. The son of Gun Runner did everything right in his winning performance, from overcoming an uncontested leader to putting away a challenge on the turn and through the top of the stretch. 

But the challenger on the turn might come across as a surprise. 

As expected in the early stages of the race, the pacesetter Forbidden Kingdom secured an uncontested lead by about a length over Taiba through opening fractions of 22.18 and 44.38 seconds. After a half-mile, Taiba started to move, but he also felt the pressure to go from Straight No Chaser outside of him. Straight No Chaser started the race at 15-1. 

Taiba and Straight No Chaser entered the top of the stretch on even terms. Straight No Chaser failed to switch leads, and he faded in mid-stretch as Taiba’s lead grew without the long shot challenging him.

Taiba won by 4 1/4 lengths over Forbidden Kingdom in second.

Hoist the Gold finished 3/4 of a length behind Forbidden Kingdom in third, and Nakatomi closed well to end up only a head behind Hoist the Gold in fourth.  

Straight No Chaser faded to seventh. But when analyzing his effort in the future, give him credit for forcing Taiba to move before the turn and getting on even terms with him entering the stretch. Edwin Maldonado rode Straight No Chaser with the intention to win, and they paid the price.

Given his previous success in nine-furlong routes, Taiba likely wants a longer distance than the seven furlongs he ran in the Malibu. His two prior Grade 1 wins came in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1), both nine-furlong races around two turns. Regardless, Taiba completed the seven furlongs in 1:21.75, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

For what it's worth, Taiba’s stablemate Fun to Dream won the La Brea Stakes (G1) only two races earlier in the card in 1:21.99.

The future is bright for Taiba. He is the type of colt who can contend in the Saudi Cup (G1) or Dubai World Cup (G1). But if the connections want to cut him back to one mile for the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), Taiba can handle that too. With all the recent retirements, Taiba could lead the older dirt routers.

La Brea Stakes

Speaking of Fun to Dream, it seems like her initial stalking position worked out well after Ganadora and Ain’t Easy traded blows in the early stages of the La Brea Stakes (G1). As stated, they ran two races earlier.

Once Ganadora and Ain’t Easy faded by mid-stretch, Fun to Dream took over and began to clear slightly before withstanding a late move from Awake at Midnyte. Fun To Dream prevailed in the end by 3/4 of a length.

With the win, Fun to Dream improved her overall record to 6: 5-0-0. The only off-the-board finish came in a Sept. 4 optional claiming race at Del Mar.

Even though Awake at Midnyte lost, she looked sharper cutting back to a sprint rather than routing and will thrive at shorter distances if the connections choose to stick to seven furlongs to one mile next year.

Fun To Dream probably needs to take another step forward to mix it up with the best in the female dirt sprinter division. As a 3-year-old filly with an unknown ceiling under trainer Bob Baffert, she certainly can progress.

Another Baffert entry, Midnight Memories, finished fourth by 4 1/2 lengths after running evenly late. She might need to stretch out again after winning the Torrey Pines Stakes (G3) and Zenyatta Stakes (G1) a few months ago. Remember, this is a granddaughter of Tough Tiz's Sis, a router who won over $900k. 

Ganadora, also the stablemate of Fun to Dream and Midnight Memories, faded to fifth and did not run a terrible race given the early pace pressure.

The fourth Baffert entry Under the Stars folded to seventh and last by 11 1/2 lengths after stalking the pace in the pocket for the initial quarter. It is not clear why she threw in another clunker, but she is better than this effort.

Fun to Dream gives her connections something to dream about. Watch to see whether she improves as a more mature and stronger 4-year-old filly.