Taiba can steal Eclipse Award votes with Malibu win
After Rich Strike and Zandon lost their attempts at capturing one more Grade 1, most of the road blocks for Epicenter winning the 3-year-old Eclipse Award went away. But one last obstacle appears in Taiba, who is pointed to the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita on Dec. 26.
This writer wants Epicenter to win the Eclipse. But to play devil’s advocate, here is an argument in favor of Taiba edging out Epicenter.
If Taiba wins the Malibu, the victory will give him three Grade 1 wins in 2022, adding to the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Those wins compare with Epicenter’s lone Grade 1 in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
Granted, the Santa Anita Derby, Pennsylvania Derby and Malibu do not measure up when weighing them each on a one-on-one basis with the Travers, especially given the history and importance of the Travers.
The Eclipse Award is supposed to represent the horse with the best campaign, and most of the time that horse will show more than one Grade 1. Taken together, those three races mean something for Taiba.
Who did Taiba beat in his Grade 1 wins?
The Santa Anita Derby win seems weak in retrospect, given Taiba defeated Messier and Forbidden Kingdom, two 3-year-olds who did not pan out going forward. Taiba went into the Santa Anita Derby with no graded-stakes experience, but the small field provided him with a clean trip and he won mostly on talent.
Months later in the Pennsylvania Derby, Taiba defeated former Grade 1 winners in Zandon and Cyberknife, who ran second and third in the race. In addition, the fourth-place Simplification had run fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and he also took the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in March. Taiba beat a strong field in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Taiba also ran second to Cyberknife in the Haskell Stakes (G1) before his Pennsylvania Derby win and his third in the difficult Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was won by Flightline in his first attempt at racing against older horses.
Plus, unlike Rich Strike and Zandon, Taiba is the type of horse who wants to win. He doesn’t not show any strange habits of finishing second or third in every race, as Rich Strike and Zandon do when they fire their best races. Taiba owns more tactical speed than those horses, which puts him in a better position to win, but Rich Strike and Zandon run as late closers.
As for which horses Taiba will beat on Dec. 26, that is unclear. The Malibu probables list on looks too small to believe right now. But the complete probables list should shape up soon as Dec. 26 gets closer.
With all that said, Taiba still faces a close vote even if he ends up winning the Malibu. Epicenter’s only Grade 1 win came in the Travers, but the runners who completed the superfecta were Cyberknife, Zandon and Rich Strike. In other words, he beat winners of the Haskell Stakes (G1), Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby all in the same race, and he beat them in style.
Epicenter also won the Risen Star (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). Because Fair Grounds did not offer a Grade 1 on its Derby path, Epicenter lacks that extra spring Grade 1 win. But Epicenter’s Risen Star win is stronger than most Grade 1s, as the third-place Zandon and runner-up Smile Happy ran 1-2 in the Blue Grass.
In all likelihood, Taiba will end up as a strong contender as he cuts back in the Malibu to seven furlongs. Assuming Taiba wins, he will steal some votes from Epicenter for the 3-year-old Eclipse Award. In other words, the Eclipse Award debates for Epicenter and Taiba should heat up soon.