Ascot tip: Tahiyra can pass Meditate again in Coronation

Even though Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies champion Meditate shows good form heading into the Group 1, $720,000 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on Friday, she will need to find another level to defeat the heavy favorite Tahiyra, who has beaten Meditate three times.

At a minimum, Meditate needs to find about two or three more lengths to stand a chance against Tahiyra when she makes that late rush.

When the pair met in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last September, Meditate began to slip away from the field and open up with a furlong to go. But as soon as Meditate made the separation from the other fillies, Tahiyra came with a powerful outside rally and inhaled her opponent.

Tahiyra blew past Meditate to win the Moyglare. Meditate gave a fine performance in finishing second and had a good 4 1/2 lengths on the third-place filly Eternal Silence. She just ran into a potential monster in Tahiyra, who left an excellent visual impression in her 2 1/4-length win.

The second meeting between Meditate and Tahiyra came this year in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket early last month. Meditate did not factor in this time and ended up only sixth by double-digit lengths. But in fairness, Meditate made her first start off a layoff, and the 20-horse field and straightaway course possibly both worked against her. 

Tahiyra and Mawj took center stage later in the race as both fillies opened up on the 20-horse field, but Tahiyra lost the one-on-one battle to Mawj by half a length. Despite the loss, Tahiyra left a great visual impression since they battled each other in isolation and away from the 18 other fillies. It just meant that Mawj and Tahiyra were on another level. 

Then in the third meeting later in May, Meditate and Tahiyra took part in the Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (G1) at the Curragh. The good version of Meditate made a return in this race. Once again, Meditate took the lead at a critical point with only two furlongs left after using her speed to sit close.

But as soon as Meditate tried to break free of the field, Tahiyra tipped outside and took the lead against Meditate once again. Tahiyra hit the wire as a strong winner as Meditate faded slightly toward the end. Meditate did hold second by a head over the long shot Comhra in third.

Unlike their meeting on the soft going in the Moyglare Stud, Tahiyra beat Meditate on a good turf course in the Irish 1000 Guineas, which means she can probably beat Meditate no matter what the course conditions are at Ascot. 

With all that said, Meditate remains a contender in the Coronation and can win with some luck, especially if Tahiyra gets caught in traffic or fires a bad race for the first time in her short career. Perhaps Meditate can open up earlier and hold on if Tahiyra needs to make up a bigger margin. 

In the more likely scenario, Tahiyra finds a clear outside path and takes aim at Meditate once again. As long as the gap is reasonable, Tahiyra is supposed to mow down Meditate and open up by a few lengths late.

Sounds of Heaven and Queen for You ran 1-2 in the Fillies Stakes last month at York, but neither of them seems fast enough to compete with Tahiyra or even with Meditate. At best, the two of them are underneath factors in wagering.

The only other interesting filly is Comhra. As described above, she lost the runner-up position to Meditate by a head in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and the only notable change was the addition of cheekpieces for the first time.

Maybe the change in equipment led to Comhra’s improved performance in that race, as it certainly stands out in comparison to her usual slow efforts. For those searching for value in second or third, Comhra is the one to use.

Overall though, this is a hard race to bet. Tahiyra deserves all the respect in the world, and 3-5 sounds fair. At the same time, if a horse falls below even money and there are no other interesting options to bet on top, then it is time to search for other races.

Odds and value aside, Tahiyra most likely will catch Meditate again and win, but Meditate can win if she finds another level or Tahiyra misfires.