Analysis: Timing's right for Swiss Skydiver's 1000 Guineas run

Over the weekend, trainer Kenny McPeek said there's a "better-than average" chance Swiss Skydiver heads overseas to tackle the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket once racing resumes this summer in England. The 3-year-old Daredevil filly has been on a roll recently, capturing the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) in March and the the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn last Friday after a stirring stretch duel.

If she flies over, the 1000 Guineas presents a few new challenges for Swiss Skydiver, including overseas travel, a surface switch to turf and European competition. Also, the race is run on a straightaway on the Rowley Mile course, as opposed to the traditional one- or two-turn mile races in the United States.

But Swiss Skydiver does hold one major advantage over her European counterparts. She has run four times this year at a rate of once a month.

Consider Quadrilateral, the betting favorite for the 1000 Guineas, and her fitness level. The undefeated filly lacks a start since last October. Other possible contenders such as Albigna and Millisle haven't raced this year either.

The coronavirus situation hit Englush racing harder than in America, forcing a complete shutdown, and made it impossible for top horses to run in prep races. If there is a “right” time for an American to tackle Europeans on their home turf, it is now when they'll all be forced to exit a layoff.

Swiss Skydiver’s connections lose nothing by trying anyway.

If she wins, she will accomplish something unusual for an American-based racehorse. According to a list of winners since 2011 found on British Champions Series, only Blue Bunting, by Dynaformer, was bred in the United States.

Many American and British racing fans will expect a loss, canceling out some of the disappointment if it happens for Swiss Skydiver. At 20-1 on bet365, players’ enthusiasm has been lukewarm toward the news.

As a third reason for attempting the 1000 Guineas, Swiss Skydiver does show a few turf influences on top and bottom of her pedigree. Even though her bloodlines tilt toward dirt, grandsire More Than Ready and damsire Johannesburg are both turf influences. In addition, Swiss Skydiver’s active half-sister Miss Hot Legs is a two-time winner over the lawn.

McPeek, the trainer, also owns some experience in shipping horses to Europe with varying results in recent years.

In 2017, Daddys Lil Darling unseated her rider before the English Oaks (G1) and bolted, resulting in a scratch. Also, in 2014 Rosalind dumped her rider at the start of the Coronation Stakes (G1).

McPeek did finish runner-up with Hard Buck in the 2004 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1). Perhaps the two cases above were a result of bad luck.

What are the drawbacks to attempting the 1000 Guineas?

The first one is figuring out travel arrangements, which might prove more complicated because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Also, if the European fillies do not need prep races to fire, they could prove tough to defeat. Trainers in Europe are known to target classics off a layoff as it is. In all likelihood, those fillies will not go into the 1000 Guineas without some knowledge of how to be prepared.

In terms of Swiss Skydiver’s main competition, Quadrilateral shows a 3-for-3 record, including her win in the Fillies’ Mile (G1). Granted, she worked hard to get up after rallying on the rail, although the common notion is that subpar European competition beats the average American in overseas turf racing.

A third drawback is that European horses are bred for turf and own successful experience running on this type of straight course.

Additionally, if Swiss Skydiver does travel overseas for the Guineas, she could miss key races in the division over dirt that may pop up here in June or July. Keeneland, one of McPeek's home tracks, is discussing running an abbreviated meet that could include the Ashland Stakes (G1).

But the larger goal of most trainers with a top 3-year-old filly now is to point for the Sept. 4 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. As McPeek mentioned, even if Swiss Skydiver travels, she could return in time to enter a domestic prep race before the Oaks.  

After the Oaks, Swiss Skydiver could then take aim at the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland, giving her another race close to home.

In other words, the positives of Swiss Skydiver flying over and taking a shot at the 1000 Guineas appear to outweigh the negatives, as the trip is not a season-ending move for the division leader among 3-year-old fillies.

If all goes to plan, the connections will send a competitive entry to Newmarket given the timing without missing important races back home.