Sunday plays: Value picks for Spinaway, Del Mar Debutante

For handicappers who love quality juvenile dirt races, Sunday is a great racing day. Two major 2-year-old races are on tap: the Grade 1, $300,000 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga and Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Debutante Stakes at Del Mar.

Although race analysis is subjective, the favorite appears beatable in each of those two races. Bettors should find other viable contenders. 

Here is short analysis and selections for each race.

Saratoga Race 11: Spinaway Stakes (G1)

On paper, Echo Zulu is the best filly.

At first asking for trainer Steve Asmussen, Echo Zulu broke her maiden locally in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint by 5 1/2 lengths with a 104 on TimeformUS. The 104 is the highest TimeformUS figure in the nine-horse field.

But she faces a tough pace scenario in this race, with Benbang and Pretty Birdie drawn to her outside, and she must handle the stretchout to seven furlongs as well.

Pedigree-wise, there is no reason why Echo Zulu cannot handle more distance as a daughter of Gun Runner and half-sister to J Boys Echo and Echo Town. The former sibling won the 2017 Gotham Stakes (G3) at one mile, while the latter took the 2020 H. Allen Jerkens (G1) at seven furlongs. Regardless, Echo Zulu still needs to prove it as the favorite.

One other viable option is Girl With a Dream, who also won at first asking at Ellis Park. She drew clear in the stretch by 6 3/4 lengths in a five-furlong sprint.

Girl With a Dream ran only a 97 on TimeformUS. She was not asked in the stretch, though, and should move forward on the increase in distance to seven furlongs. Her dam Henley is a half-sister to turf miler Mr. Commons, a winner of $940k in his successful career.

Also, trainer Brad Cox typically does not crank his first-time starters.

If Girl With a Dream can handle taking dirt in the first half of the race while stalking, she can contend for the win. At 6-1, this promising filly offers nice value.

Top selection: No. 3 Echo Zulu (8/5)

Best value: No. 2 Girl With a Dream (6-1)

Del Mar Race 10: Del Mar Debutante (G1)

As written before, the first start acts as a learning experience for horses, especially for undeveloped 2-year-olds. Many of them move forward in their second starts.

The first-time starter Grace Adler looks a bit slow at first after winning a local maiden race on July 31 by 3/4 of a length with only an 83 on TimeformUS.

From a visual standpoint, she gave a good impression by winning under mostly a hand ride by Flavien Prat. She only needed the reins shaken.

Grace Adler also overcame a slow pace from her stalking position.

A faster performance in Grace Adler’s graded stakes debut is expected for a couple of reasons besides the usual second career start angle.

For one, her pedigree shows stamina on both sides, with Curlin on top and the Newfoundland mare Our Khrysty on the bottom. Our Khrysty is a half-sister to Bullsbay, a successful stakes router who won the 2009 Whitney Handicap (G1).

Also, trainer Bob Baffert is behind Grace Adler and he typically does not crank his horses for their career debuts either. Even though horses win often at first asking for Baffert, it is more because he receives good stock. Look at the improvement of Eda from her career debut to the Sorrento Stakes (G2). Even though she lost both starts, Eda went from a 77 to a 101 on TimeformUS figures.

Plus, Grace Adler is supposed to receive more pace this time. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the Debutante is coded in red, with Dance to the Music and Rock the Belles set to contest the pace. Eda, Elm Drive and Bicameral are supposed to chase the two main speed threats. In fact, the pace is supposedly so fast that Grace Adler is shown last.

Expect Grace Adler to sit somewhere in mid-pack, which is perfect if the pace is fast.

As for the other fillies, they are not very appealing. Maybe one or two of them is useful as a backup option in multi-race wagers.  

Dance to the Music won by 4 3/4 lengths in her local career debut on July 24. Yet she likely defeated a weak group. Four of those fillies came back to run since then, and the best finish was a distant third by Mitigation in an Aug. 26 maiden race.

Elm Drive and Eda are possibly decent runners after finishing 1-2 in the Sorrento Stakes (G2), but the prices from a win standpoint on either of them seem unappealing at 5-2 and 3-1. Still, they are useful in horizontal wagers.

At 5-1, Grace Adler offers good value. She is an interesting win/place bet, if those odds hold.

Top selection: No. 7 Grace Adler (5-1)

Contenders: No. 2 Eda (3-1), No. 3 Elm Drive (5-2)