Sunday plays: Summer Colony, Queen's Plate and more

With the $120,000 Summer Colony Stakes at Saratoga on Sunday the lone stakes race on the card, the action cools down for now in Saratoga Springs. Across the border, though, Woodbine Racetrack hosts the historic $1 million Queen's Plate Stakes for Canadian-bred 3-year-olds as well as three graded stakes races.

Here are thoughts on select Saratoga and Woodbine races for Sunday.

Saratoga race 1: 2-year-old fillies, maiden

After watching workouts and reviewing pedigrees, there are likely no buzzsaws among the first-time starters. If one of them is used, then the right one is likely the Todd Pletcher-trained Goddess of Fire, who is a daughter of Mineshaft.

Goddess of Fire is half-sister to the Grade 1 stakes-winning sprinter Mind Control, who recently won the John A. Nerud Stakes (G2) at Belmont. Mind Control also won the 2019 Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) and 2018 Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. He won two of his first three starts as well.

Mineshaft is not known as a sprint sire, but it is nice to see a quality sprinter in a first-time starter’s family if the race is a sprint distance. She might run well enough.

Otherwise, the experienced Time for Cupid is an obvious threat after crossing the wire first by 4 1/2 lengths at Lone Star Park. Her disqualification was questionable. The upgrade to a Saratoga maiden race also works as a sign of confidence from trainer Steve Asmussen. 

For a third option, consider Everyoneloveslinda, who ran a good second to the impressive maiden winner Microbiome on July 15. On Aug. 8, Microbiome went on to finish a decent fifth in the Adirondack Stakes (G2) after pressing the eventual winner Wicked Halo through a hot pace. Against this group, Everyoneloveslinda might prevail this time.

Top pick: Goddess of Fire (3-1)

Contender: Time for Cupid (2-1)

Best value: Everyoneloveslinda (6-1)

Saratoga race 9: Summer Colony Stakes, 1 1/4 miles, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up

The featured race at Saratoga is an evenly matched one.

Gold Spirit might deserve another shot after flashing some speed in her North American debut and finishing fourth by 2 1/4 lengths in the local Shuvee Stakes (G3) on July 25. She could not outrun the pacesetter Horologist, who is in this race too. But sometimes South American horses need time to acclimate to North America.

Horologist set a fast pace in the Shuvee and only Royal Flag caught her late. Despite the runner-up finish, Horologist still put up a relatively high 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Without Royal Flag’s presence this time around, maybe Horologist can secure the lead and hold on late.  

Gibberish might pressure Horologist or even set the pace outright. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, she is supposed to secure the lead uncontested, although the algorithms with Pace Projector are not perfect. If that scenario occurs, she can win as well.

Top pick: #6 Gold Spirit (5/2)

Contender: #2 Horologist (2-1)

Best value: #Gibberish (7/2)

Woodbine race 6: Ontario Colleen Stakes (G3), 1 mile (turf), 3-year-old fillies

The Ontario Colleen almost looks like a “hit the All button” race.

Misspell had a nice second-place finish in a July 17 optional claimer at Saratoga. Perhaps that kind of effort at a high-quality meet translates into a win against Grade 3 company at Woodbine. 

Speightstown Shirl is consistent, if nothing else. She shows five exacta finishes in five lifetime starts, including a second to Souper Sensational last September in a maiden race. But Speightstown Shirl won only one of those five races, and by a small margin.

Our Flash Drive carries an impressive two-race win streak into this race. In June, she broke her maiden locally by 3 3/4 lengths on the synthetic course. About one month later, Our Flash Drive then won the local Selene Stakes (G3), over synthetic again. Can this synthetic-loving filly translate her sharp form onto turf?

Seasons is the last one to think consider for the win. She runs more comfortable as a closer, yet she was pressing the pace in the Boiling Springs Stakes at Pimlico. Expect a different type of ride in this race.

Top pick: #8 Misspell (2-1)

Contenders: #2 Our Flash Drive (5/2), #7 Speightstown Shirl (7/2)

Best value: #6 Seasons (8-1)

Woodbine race 9: Dance Smartly Stakes (G2), 1 1/4 miles (turf), fillies and mares, 3-year-olds an dup

Because the Woodbine turf course is unique compared with other North American racetracks, it makes sense to choose horses with successful experience on it.

Etoile was second in last year’s edition of the Dance Smartly Stakes by only 3/4 of a length to Theodora B. She then won the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) in October, proving her affinity for this long turf course. After the win, she went on the shelf.

Although Etoile only ran fourth by three lengths in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) at Keeneland in her comeback in April, there are no fillies or mares of that quality here. Expect a performance from Etoile that matches or surpasses the E.P. Taylor effort.  

For long-shot options underneath, think about the double-digit long shots Merveilleux and Court Return. The latter runner lost by a only neck to Etoile in the E.P. Taylor last October.

Top pick: #5 Etoile (2-1)

Underneath: #2 Merveilleux (15-1), #7 Court Return (10-1)

Woodbine race 10: Queen's Plate Stakes, 1 1/4 miles (synthetic), 3-year-olds

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, a fast pace is brewing in the Queen's Plate. Assuming that is true, this race is a good opportunity for long-shot closers to win.

Avoman runs as a mid-pack closer and owns a reliable enough late punch that has led to two wins and two third-place finishes in five career starts. In his most recent start, he won the local Plate Trial Stakes, although the victory came in only a four-horse field.

Post 11 might help Avoman. After the front starts collapsing, Avoman can start passing horses on the outside.

If not Avoman, Dance Some Mo might cause the upset.

In most normal races, Dance Some Mo runs as a close-range stalker. Last month in a local optional claiming race, Dance Some Mo took control of the lead after pressing the pace and held a two-length lead before Harlan Estate caught him.

Watching it again, it looks like jockey Patrick Husbands rode Dance Some Mo with overconfidence by not hitting his mount in the stretch. Subsequently, Dance Some Mo did not finish off the race, but he is likely to receive more late urging this time.

With the fast pace, also expect Dance Some Mo to settle a bit farther back. 

Given Harlan Estate did close nicely to beat Dance Some Mo, he deserves consideration for the win spot as well. With that said, this is a hard race to bet on with confidence.

Top pick: #11 Avoman (8-1)

Contenders: #10 Dance Some Mo (12-1), #2 Harlan Estate (12-1)

Woodbine race 11: Highlander Stakes (G1), 6 furlongs (turf), 3-year-olds and up

At first glance, Caravel looks too fast for this field of turf sprinters. In her three most recent starts, Caravel won The Very One Stakes at Pimlico, Goldwood Stakes at Monmouth and the Caress Stakes (G3) at Saratoga by a dominating 2 1/2 lengths.

Granted, those races came against females. Now this filly faces males as she switches to the Graham Motion barn. Regardless, this is not a difficult field for a Grade 1 race, and she can probably sit in a perfect spot right behind the speed in a stalking position.

For a long shot, consider the closer Old Chestnut. In his most recent start, he won a local optional claiming race by a nose. Earlier in his career, he also broke his maiden here over the inner course and won the Ontario Racing Stakes.

If the pace heats up, expect Old Chestnut to contend.

Top pick: #7 Caravel (1-1)

Best value: #1 Old Chestnut (10-1)