Sunday plays: Saratoga Oaks, Adirondack, De La Rose, more

As usual at the prestigious Saratoga meet, the quality graded-stakes action continues on Sunday with the Grade 3, $700,000 Saratoga Oaks Invitational for 3-year-old turf routing fillies and the Grade 2, $200,000 Adirondack Stakes for 2-year-old fillies sprinting on dirt. 

                    Click here for Saratoga entries, results.

Additional races covered below are the mid-card maiden race on dirt for 2-year-old fillies and the $120,000 De La Rose Stakes for older turf fillies and mares.

Here are the short analysis and picks for each race. 

Saratoga race 6: Maiden

Fabulous Fanny makes her career debut for trainer Steven Asmussen. Although Union Rags progeny are slightly overbet in their debuts, this filly shows good signs related to her rise up in auction price and work tab.

As a yearling, Fabulous Fanny cost only $20,000 at the Keeneland Association September Yearling Sale, which was held only less than a year ago. Then months later at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale in May, her price suddenly went up to $400,000.  

Fabulous Fanny also shows a steady worktab with seven works since June 15. The four-furlong spin in 47.40 from the gate on July 13 at Keeneland stands out, as it was the fourth best time of 60 horses at the same distance.

Also consider Free Chickens, who makes her career debut for trainer Jorge Abreu. According to First-Timer Insights on HRN Pro Reports, Abreu hits at 24 percent with first-time starters out of 94 attempts with an extremely high positive Impact score of 118 percent. The 118 percent Impact score means that Abreu is greatly ignored with first timers by bettors.

Saratoga race 7: De La Rose Stakes

Unfortunately for longshot players, the two Chad Brown-trained mares Viadera and Regal Glory stand out in this race. Since the two mares are listed at 6/5 and 9/5 respectively, the payoffs will be low. Regardless, both Brown entries probably deserve those low odds.  

Regal Glory might hold the slight advantage because she makes her third start off the layoff in this race. Most horses hit their best stride in either their second or third start back.

In Regal Glory’s season debut, she won the Plenty of Grace Stakes at Aqueduct. Then in June, she gave a mild closing run to finish fourth in the Just a Game Stakes (G1) at Belmont, losing by 3 ½ lengths to Althiqa. Althiqa and the runner-up Summer Romance went on to finish 1-2 again in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

Viadera won last year’s edition of this race, before taking the Noble Damsel Stakes (G3) at Belmont and Matriarch Stakes (G1) at Del Mar to close out her season.

If she returns in the same form without needing a race, she can win. 

Saratoga race 8: Adirondack Stakes (G2)

Despite the popular team of trainer Steven Asmussen and owner Winchell Thoroughbreds, Wicked Halo might offer value following her third-place finish in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs in June.

In the Debutante, Wicked Halo set a fast pace and led until the top of the stretch, when Ontheonesandtwos and Behave Virginia both made their moves. Wicked Halo did not stop running, but she became a little tired in midstretch and ultimately had to settle for third. She lost to the winner Behave Virginia by 1 ½ lengths.

Because of the fast pace, Wicked Halo earned the high TimeformUS figure of 101 in the Debutante. The 101 on TimeformUS is also the highest in the Adirondack field.

Even though Wicked Halo set the pace last time, that could change with an outside post. Young horses are liable to settle down with experience.

Wicked Halo is the top selection, especially if she stays at 7/2.

Ontheonesandtwos also makes sense to use.

This filly beat Wicked Halo for second in the Debutante by half a length to earn a 97 on TimeformUS. Back in May, she also broke her maiden at first asking at Lone Star Park with an 89. Note the runner-up Smash Ticket, who was third in the Sorrento Stakes (G2) at Del Mar only yesterday. 

Although Ontheonesandtwos loses Florent Geroux, she gains one the top jockeys around in Irad Ortiz Jr. In addition, trainer Norm Casse won the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) earlier in the meet with Pretty Birdie, which shows he can fire at Saratoga in these 2-year-old stakes races.

Wicked Halo and Ontheonesandtwos are usable in multi-race wagers. In terms of a win and place bet, Wicked Halo is the more intriguing play.

Saratoga race 9: Saratoga Oaks (G3)

Without the presence of Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) winner Santa Barbara, this race falls into the hands of the American-based fillies.

Con Lima is the most reliable option. She only lost the Belmont Oaks by half a length after Santa Barbara made that powerful push forward late in the race. In 12 overall starts, Con Lima has won an impressive six times and run second five times. The only off-the-board finish for this filly came on dirt in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).

If not Con Lima, Higher Truth might close well enough for her first stakes win. She only missed second by a nose to Con Lima in the Belmont Oaks. Furthermore, Higher Truth is liable to improve for trainer Chad Brown as a filly with only four lifetime starts. She made her stakes debut in the Belmont Oaks, which makes the second-place finish in that race look good.

For a third option, Plum Ali is slightly interesting. She only made a mild closing run for fifth by 2 ½ lengths in the Belmont Oaks. Two starts back though, Plum Ali only lost by half a length to Con Lima in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3).

Plum Ali’s four-race losing streak will keep many bettors away, which makes this filly a possible value play at 5-1 or higher. With that said, she does need pace help.