Sunday Plays: Local horse is capable in Sunland Derby

Based on his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) win last December, Slow Down Andy starts as the morning line favorite in the Grade 3, $500,000 Sunland Derby on Sunday. Slow Down Andy deserves his role as the favorite and could make amends for his disappointing run at Fair Grounds last month, but there is also another entry to consider playing.

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The local horse Bye Bye Bobby is capable of a minor upset.

In his most recent start, Bye Bye Bobby only lost the Mine That Bird Derby by 3/4 of a length after Straight Up G almost blew a 3 ½-length advantage.

The flow of the race is interesting because Bye Bye Bobby initially ran in fifth through the first quarter. Bye Bye Bobby then made an early move into the tracking position in second with Classic Moment traveling right alongside him in third.

On the second turn, Straight Up G starts to open up on Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment. Straight Up G carries his lead advantage into the top of the stretch and looks like a certain winner at this point.

Deep into midstretch though, Straight Up G switches to his wrong lead and suddenly becomes tired, as Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment continue to grind in second and third. With Straight Up G struggling to get home, Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment make up ground and Bye Bye Bobby just runs out of time before he can catch him.

Not every horse who closes well in one race improves going longer, but perhaps Bye Bye Bobby can take advantage of the slight stretchout. In addition, Bye Bye Bobby’s local trainer Todd Fincher is less likely to get overbet by bettors in other states, even with his high winning percentage at Sunland.

Bye Bye Bobby faces a tough newcomer in the Cal-bred Slow Down Andy, the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner who defeated Messier last December.

Slow Down Andy began the current year in Fair Grounds, where he competed in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and ran a disappointing sixth. He lost by 10 lengths to Epicenter, who is considered one of the best 3-year-olds in training. Study how Epicenter fares in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday when handicapping the Sunland Derby.

One concern is that Slow Down Andy only beat Messier at Los Alamitos because of the quirky configuration with the short turns and longer stretch, and that could explain his Risen Star effort. But, there is also a chance Slow Down Andy took on a deceptively strong group of 3-year-olds in the Risen Star, which exposed him after his big win in a five-horse Los Alamitos Futurity field containing only one other good runner.

In this spot, Slow Down Andy steps down in class at a second-tier track. The Sunland Derby is worth Derby points, but it generally does not attract the strongest group of 3-year-olds. He could find the company here easier.

With that said, the odds on Slow Down Andy figure to drop below his 2-1 morning line odds. Even with the sixth-place finish at Fair Grounds, he will still attract significant money at Sunland based on his Los Alamitos win and reliable connections. Slow Down Andy’s trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Reddam Racing are familiar names to the public as past Derby winners.

Odds and value aside, Slow Down Andy is the one to beat. He probably does not need to match his Los Alamitos form in order to win on Sunday. Slow Down Andy can give a B plus performance and still beat these. Otherwise, Bye Bye Bobby can post a small upset. 

Use both Bye Bye Bobby and Slow Down Andy in multi-race wagers.

At his morning line odds of 9-2 or higher, Bye Bye Bobby is playable to win. At 5-2 or higher, Slow Down Andy is attractive for a win bet or exacta, although those odds do not seem realistic given his expected popularity.

Win: 5 (at 9-2 or higher)

or

Win: 4 (at 5-2 or higher)

Exacta: 4-5