Sunday plays: Improved Market Analysis the choice at Oaklawn

Although the allowance optional claiming feature at Oaklawn on Sunday is not an official stakes race, it brings together some familiar names such as Sonneman, Wells Bayou, Background and the resurgent Market Analysis.

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Yes, Market Analysis is still in training two years after his failed attempt in the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He made no real impact in the Derby trail race for trainer Todd Pletcher and ended up a well-beaten sixth.

Market Analysis returned under trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer in September 2020 and started twice for him before getting claimed into the Manny Perez barn. After a few starts at Hawthorne, Market Analysis then moved to Tim Padilla and started running in races at Canterbury Downs.

He won and lost races under those two trainers at the allowance levels. Nevertheless, it was disappointing to see Market Analysis sink to mediocrity at second-tier tracks after starting in the Tampa Bay Derby.

When Market Analysis began his current season though, he started for his fifth trainer in Robertino Diodoro. Under Diodoro, Market Analysis woke up with a 2 ¼-length win in a local $50k-level optional claiming race on Jan. 22 after setting the pace and maintaining his advantage. Market Analysis' 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win gave him a career-high speed figure.

In his second start under Diodoro, Market Analysis tried another local optional claiming race at the $62.5k level on Feb. 22. This time, Market Analysis had to stretch out from one and one-sixteenth miles to nine furlongs. He took the lead on the second turn and tried to open up on the field, but Trident Hit caught him late and won by ¾ of a length.

For the runner-up effort, Market Analysis earned another career-high of 117 on TimeformUS, which means he is improving under Diodoro.  

Now Market Analysis cuts back to one and one-sixteenth miles and may get loose as he did two starts ago, even with Wells Bayou present.

On the same 2020 Derby trail, Wells Bayou had developed into a fast pacesetter. He won the Louisiana Derby (G2) that year by securing the lead and not stopping.  

When Wells Bayou made his return in 2021 though, either trainer Brad Cox tried to tinker with his pacesetting style or his speed slowed down.

In his first start last year, Wells Bayou let Blackberry Wine set the pace in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) and they both were caught by Title Ready. Wells Bayou ended up third, as he could not even outfinish Blackberry Wine. Then in the Oaklawn Mile, Wells Bayou ran as a closer from seventh in a packed group. He put in a decent run to finish third again.

Wells Bayou made another return this year in a local Feb. 21 optional claiming race, and after stalking the leader in third he folded badly to sixth and lost by double-digit lengths.

Imagine thinking Wells Bayou would develop into an average stalker or closer. Two years ago, this horse had great speed and now it is gone.  

Even if Wells Bayou suddenly wakes up though and tries to gun for the lead, Market Analysis can probably sit right off him. In the Feb. 19 optional claiming race, he took up the pressing role in the early stages of the race before taking over the lead at the top of the stretch.

Market Analysis is the top selection. Sonneman and Wells Bayou are unreliable for second. My Sixth Sense is not that attractive either at a short price. 

Maybe a longshot can complete the exacta.  

Watch the expected payouts with Market Analysis on top of Background, Beaver Hat and Taishan. It is possible all three of them are usable in second. If one of the expected payouts looks too slow, consider narrowing the exacta wheel down to two horses in the second slot.

In any case, Market Analysis has finally been on a nice upswing at a major track after spending his time last year at Hawthorne and Canterbury Downs. Whether he sets the pace or sits off the leader in this optional claimer, he can finish strong and win against this group. Perhaps this 5-year-old gelding is heading towards stakes races soon.

Win: 4

Exacta wheel: 4 / 1,6,7