Sunday plays: Fast pace looms in Longacres Mile

Once again, Emerald Downs attracts national racing attention with the Grade 3, $100,000 Longacres Mile on Sunday. Typically, this race features a fast pace, and this edition looks to follow a similar path in terms of early speed.

Who can take advantage of the speed? In addition to the graded stakes race, there is also the $50,000 Emerald Distaff Handicap on the undercard.

Here is analysis for both races.

Emerald Downs Race 6: Emerald Distaff H.

Daffodil Sweet deserves her role as favorite after winning three of four 2021 starts, including the 6 ½-furlong Washington State Legislators Stakes by 2 ½ lengths on July 11 and a local one-mile allowance race on July 24 by 2 ¾ lengths. She owns speed and does not necessarily need the lead either.

If Daffodil Sweet weakens in a fast pace or fails to fire for any other reason though, then #7 Princess of Cairo might take advantage.

Most recently, Princess of Cairo has lost two allowance races at Hastings in a row. But she did win a 6 ½-furlong allowance race on May 18 by 4 ¾ lengths. She also beat Daffodil Sweet last September on this course in the Washington Oaks.

Also, in Princess of Cairo’s most recent start, she was third to Infinite Patience in a Hastings allowance race on July 13. Infinite Patience went on to win the CTHS Sales Stakes by 11 lengths on Aug. 2, if that means anything.

Princess of Cairo is labeled as a midpack runner by TimeformUS, but she can probably sit a little closer if the heated pace does not pan out.

Top pick: #6 Daffodil Sweet (8/5)

Best value: #7 Princess of Cairo (7/2)

Emerald Downs Race 8: Longacres Mile (G3)

Anyportinastorm is arguably one of the fastest horses in the race and could slip away up front if the expected pace scenario is moderate.

In his most recent start, he faded to fourth in the Oak Tree Sprint at Pleasanton, which is a decent effort considering he contested a hot pace. Note the winner Law Abidin Citizen, who went on to run a close fourth at 21-1 in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) at Del Mar. Law Abidin Citizen and Anyportinastorm also ran 1-2 in last year’s edition of the Longacres Mile, and Law Abidin Citizen is not here this time. 

With some luck on the lead, it could be Anyportinastorm’s turn.

However, he faces a tough scenario with the presence of other speed entries such as Papa’s Golden Boy, Windribbon, Five Star General and Sir Bregovic.

If the pace melts down, Background is capable of winning.

In most cases, Background runs as a presser or stalker. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector though, the expected pace scenario is extreme enough that Background is charted towards the back of midpack in this race.

On paper, Background is a consistent horse with trifecta finishes in five out of six starts this year. His 2021 wins include two allowance races at Oaklawn over the spring, and he also ran second by a head to Guest Suite in the Hanshin Cup at Arlington in June. His lone recent clunker came off the bench in January.

Background does not look like a Grade 3 horse at those kinds of tracks, but at Emerald Downs, the Longacres Mile is a “soft” Grade 3. With the majority of the field comprised of Washington locals, Background easily fits as one of the major win contenders and should benefit from a duel. 

Also consider the longshot Unmachable, at least for the underneath slots.

Unmachable is a closer who ran second in a local one-mile allowance race on July 24. He lost by 1 ¾ lengths to Hard to Deny, one of the Longacres Mile entries.

Two starts ago, Unmachable was also a closing second in the local Governors Stakes to Papa’s Golden Boy. With 11 trifecta finishes in 13 starts, this is also a consistent horse. The only question is how he handles the shippers.

If the pace completely burns down and Background finds traffic or does not fire for any reason, Unmachable could pull off the upset at double-digit odds.

Top pick: #7 Background (5-1)

Contender: #5 Anyportinastorm (3-1)

Best value: #9 Unmachable (15-1)