Sunday plays: Stakes action at Aqueduct is in spotlight

Most horses bred in New York are not fast enough to tackle the grueling Kentucky Derby or Oaks trail. Luckily, Aqueduct offers plenty of New York-bred restricted stakes races to give those young horses lucrative spots to compete in.

On Sunday, Aqueduct runs the $100,000 Notebook Stakes for New York-bred 2-year-olds and $100,000 Key Cents Stakes for 2-year-old fillies.

Here are selections and possible bets for both races.

Aqueduct Race 3: Notebook Stakes

Unfortunately, the 1-2 Senbei looks too fast for this group.

In Senbei’s most recent start on Oct. 18, he won the six-furlong New York Breeders Futurity by four lengths at Finger Lakes. Three starts ago, Senbei also won the six-and-a-half furlong Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga by 2 ¾ lengths. The Notebook is a six-furlong contest.

In addition, this race is weak enough beyond Senbei that the 7/2 morning line second choice Daufuskie Island lost to Senbei by 7 ¼ lengths at Finger Lakes. Cool Laoban is the morning line third choice at 8-1 and he lacks any dirt experience. Tied at 8-1 is Kenner, and he only just broke his maiden in his fourth start on Oct. 22 at Belmont Park.

Senbei can either set the pace or press, which makes him versatile as well. Single him in multi-race wagers and move on. If a vertical ticket is played, then consider using Cool Laoban or Bustin Pietre under him.

Cool Laoban’s record shows two turf starts at Belmont. In the latter race, he made a closing bid to pick up his first win by a neck against state breds. It is not clear if Cool Laoban can handle dirt. Assuming Cool Laoban can close in the same fashion though, he figures to pick up tired horses late for a check.

Bustin Pietre only won a state-bred maiden claiming race by 5 ½ lengths in his career debut at Belmont last month. Even though he beat claimers, Bustin Pietre moves like a nice gelding capable of improving.

Top selection: No. 4 Senbei (1-2)

Underneath: No. 1 Cool Laoban (8-1), No. 3 Bustin Pietre (10-1)

Bet

Exacta wheel: 4 / 1,3

Aqueduct Race 9: Key Cents Stakes

From a betting standpoint, Makin My Move is an attractive filly.

Makin My Move made her successful career debut on Aug. 20 at Saratoga and crushed the maiden field by 12 ½ lengths. She won after contesting the lead in the first quarter and putting those pace opponents away early by the turn in a dominating performance.

Luis Saez barely moved on Makin My Move as she cruised towards the wire. Visually, she gave the impression of a filly meant for graded stakes races.

The connections did try a graded stakes race with Makin My Move next time, but the attempt came in the Matron Stakes (G3) on turf. Makin My Move sat right off the pacesetter Mystic Eyes in the first half, but she could not deliver a final blow in the stretch and had to settle for a close fourth by 1 ½ lengths.

On the return to dirt, Makin My Move figures to build on the impressive maiden win and finish off the race with more punch this time. Because trainer John Kimmel is behind her, bettors are not likely to run to the windows to bet Makin My Move either, especially with Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher-trained fillies in the race.

According to TimeformUS, Makin My Move’s lone pace opponent is Silver Fist, the filly who finished 12 ½ lengths behind Makin My Move at Saratoga.

If the pace does heat up, then Cupid’s Heart could take advantage from behind at generous odds. This filly is trained by Bruce Levine.

Cupid’s Heart overcame a slow pace, including a 23.21 opening quarter and 47.38 half, to win her Oct. 23 career debut at Belmont by 4 ¼ lengths. If she gets a little more pace this time, she could mow them all down again.

Most bettors know Levine, but he is not the kind of trainer who casual players line up to bet. Cupid’s Heart may end up ignored in live wagering.  

Another filly to discuss is Miss Alacrity, who is a hard read after spending her last two races in five-furlong turf races. In her most recent start, she faded to fourth in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita against males.

Back in May though, Miss Alacrity broke her maiden by 10 lengths at Belmont over dirt. That race feels like a long time ago by now though.

What about the morning line favorite Classy Edition, who is 2 for 2 in her career? In September, this filly broke her maiden by 6 ¾ lengths at Saratoga and won the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes at Belmont by eight lengths.

Casual bettors love trainer Todd Pletcher, which hurts the value right off the bat. Unsurprisingly, Classy Edition offers an unattractive 9/5 on the morning line, and she holds no advantage from a speed figure standpoint. She is a play-against.

Top selection: No. 7 Makin Money (3-1)

Contenders: No. 1 Miss Alacrity (9/2), No. 5 Cupid’s Heart (7/2)

Bet

Win/place: 7