Sunday plays: Mild upset pick for Los Al's King Glorious

With an inexperienced morning line favorite present in the $100,000 King Glorious Stakes for state-bred 2-year-olds at Los Alamitos on Sunday, it makes sense to take a shot on this race and seek out a value pick or two.

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The 2-1 favorite in the King Glorious is Straight Up G, who broke his maiden on Nov. 21 at Del Mar by 5 ¼ lengths after contesting the early pace. His TimeformUS Speed Figure came up fast, as he posted a 111.

Straight Up G beat a questionable field though. The runner-up Liberty Forever previously ran ninth in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes. Also, the third-place Disobey was sixth in his career debut in a local maiden race.

In addition, the fifth-place Star Entry won a local state-bred claiming race in his next start, although it is unclear if winning a maiden claiming race flatters Straight Up G or reinforces the idea he defeated weaklings. 

There is another problem with Straight Up G besides the possibility he beat a slow field in his Del Mar maiden win.

Straight Up G lacks any route experience in his two starts. In this spot, he stretches out from six furlongs to one mile. Although he might handle the mile, it stinks to take a short price on a horse trying a new distance.

The most obvious alternative to Straight Up G is Finneus. This son of Stay Thirsty won the Golden State Juvenile Stakes at Del Mar in his most recent start. He also shows multiple graded stakes placings, including runner-up finishes in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. No other runner in the field can boast those types of graded stakes credentials.

On the negative side, Finneus draws the rail and figures to take dirt in the first half. Given he tends to rally on the outside and in the clear, there is the chance he might not find an easy path if traffic stops him.  

Also, the value on Finneus is better than Straight Up G, but he is not that exciting in terms of oods. He is 3-1 on the morning line, but there is a chance those odds dip lower in live wagering given his credentials.

One intriguing option is So I’m Told at 8-1.

So I’m Told broke his maiden at first asking in a one-mile turf race at Del Mar on Sept. 3.

Although turf form is not supposed to prove a horse can handle dirt, the race at least shows So I’m Told can win a one-mile race.

Pedigree-wise, there is no reason why So I’m Told cannot run as well on dirt. This son of Square Eddie is out of the Flower Alley mare Bas.  

Flower Alley was a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt. His career highlight came when he won the 2005 Travers Stakes (G1).

As for Bas, she is a half-sister to the six-figure earner Bold Decision. In her 25-race career, Bold Decision won three times, including twice on dirt. She took the second of those two dirt wins in the 2005 Say Florida Sandy Stakes at Belmont Park.

From Post 6, So I'm Told can settle in midpack behind an expected fast pace and make his rally in the clear when the time becomes right. 

One more horse to consider is the deep closer Socal Red.

Socal Red could only manage to finish fourth in the seven-furlong Golden State Juvenile, but he passed many horses from last to reach that position.

Three starts ago, Socal Red broke his maiden in a one-mile open maiden claiming $50k race at Del Mar. Stretching back out to one mile again might help Socal Red fully unleash his stretch run. Even though Socal Red did little running in the one-mile Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes in between his maiden win and Golden Juvenile, he was overmatched.

To give one note on Socal Red’s pedigree, his second dam Blending Element won the Yerba Buena Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3) at one mile and three-eighths on turf in a successful career that saw her win $448k.

So I’m Told is the better win bet though because he owns more tactical speed than Socal Red, better value than Finneus and a great post position. The lack of experience on dirt gives bettors room to pause. Regardless, he remains playable to win and place at 6-1 or higher.

Top selection: No. 6 So I’m Told (8-1)

Contender: No. 1 Finneus (3-1)

Live longshot: No. 9 Socal Red (8-1)

Bet

Win/place: 6