Sunday Plays: Win bets for Rags to Riches, Street Sense

For bettors who love 2-year-old races, Churchill Downs offers a dream card on Sunday as every race on the card is filled with the "stars of tomorrow."

Here are final thoughts for the two stakes races on the card, the $200,000 Rags to Riches Stakes and Grade 3, $200,000 Street Sense Stakes.  

Churchill Downs Race 6: Rags to Riches Stakes

Fun and Feisty won the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) on this course with a 97 TimeformUS speed figure back in September as the blog choice. But she could not back up the effort in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland with a flat eighth-place finish. Maybe she beat a weak field in the Pocahontas. 

Granted, Fun and Feisty meets another weak group in this spot. But she is not scary. This feels like the right race to search elsewhere.  

Dre Me Less won for the first time in a local $50k maiden claiming race on Sept. 29. She beat the field easily by five lengths with minimal urging while earning a 93 TimeformUS figure and 83 Brisnet speed rating. Both speed figures are competitive relative to most of the fillies’ average numbers in this field.

In addition, Dre Me Less is 15-1 on the morning line and likely to stay around there because the maiden claiming race in the most recent running line should scare away bettors. Going from a maiden claimer to a $200k stakes race is a big jump in most cases, although this is a special situation where the stakes race is filled with mostly slow fillies.

Maybe the connections gave up too easily on Dre Me Less when she ran seventh in her career debut on Aug. 13. Not only did the drop to a claimer help on Sept. 29, but the switch to a two-turn route distance probably helped too. The dam of Dre Me Less is a half-sister to She Be Wild, who won the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. 

As long as Dre Me Less remains double-digit odds, she is playable.

Win/place: 8 (at 10-1 or higher)

Churchill Downs Race 10: Street Sense Stakes (G3)

One of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runners should win this race.

The most interesting colt exiting the Breeders’ Futurity is Two Phil’s, who ran into some trouble on the crowded first turn from the terrible Post 12.

Watch as Two Phil’s gets caught behind horses while trying to tuck in slightly on the first turn. Then, something causes him to blow the turn and lose several lengths quickly before he regathers himself into a decent rhythm.

Afterwards, Two Phil’s runs roughly in midpack for most of the race. To his credit, Two Phil's does work his way to fifth on the far turn and within striking distance of the lead. But in the stretch, Two Phil’s cannot sustain the small move and fades to seventh and 10 3/4 lengths back.

Considering the high level of competition and trouble on the first turn, Two Phil’s did not embarrass himself in his Grade 1 debut. The fact that Two Phil’s remained interested in the race after the trouble is a great sign, as many 2-year-olds will just stop running if their momentum is stopped.

Two Phil’s biggest competition in the Street Sense is Red Route One, who closed for third in the Breeders’ Futurity, and Frosted Departure, who faded badly to tenth after saving ground while stalking the leaders from the inside.

If Two Phil’s can use his tactical speed, he can probably get first run before Red Route Run arrives with his closing move from the clouds. As for Frosted Departure, the jury is out on whether this colt wants to run a two-turn route.

Two Phil’s is a value at 8-1 on the morning line. If he slips to 4-1, he remains playable. If his odds go even more south, then just skip the race.

Win: 5 (at 4-1 or higher)