Sunday Plays: Finding value in Churchill's Matt Winn Stakes

One day after the Triple Crown season ends with the Belmont Stakes, seven 3-year-olds are scheduled to take part in the Grade 3, $225,000 Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs. The race is comprised mostly of names formerly found on the Derby trail, with Cyberknife being the lone actual Kentucky Derby participant.

Cyberknife is also the favorite on the morning at 8/5, and he deserves this role even after fading from sixth to 18th in the Kentucky Derby. As pointed out on almost every handicapping site, the pace ended up suicidal and affected every horse within a few lengths of the lead.

Prior to the Derby fade, Cyberknife won the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn by 2 3/4 lengths over Barber Road, who ran a closing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and also participated in the Belmont Stakes.

Because of his win in the Arkansas Derby, Cyberknife offers the class advantage in the Matt Winn and a fair price at 8-5, if that even holds up. Before unloading on him though, watch Barber Road’s Belmont effort.

One other colt to consider is Tough to Tame, who makes his third start of the year after defeating older horses in a Hawthorne optional claimer by 3 1/2 lengths. One race before that win, he ran second in a 5 1/2-furlong optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs in March to start off his new campaign.

Cross out the Tampa Bay Downs loss, as Tough to Tame probably needed the March race off the layoff to dust off the cobwebs. His second start off the bench at Hawthorne looks good when considering he beat older horses, including the runner-up Sermononthemount. Last summer, Sermononthemount finished a good second in the Indiana Derby (G3) and third in the Ellis Park Derby as well.

Last fall, Tough to Tame ran second at 37-1 in the local Iroquois Stakes (G3) while only losing by a head to the Todd Pletcher-trained Major General, the runner-up in the Lexington Stakes (G3) in April. If nothing else, the Iroquois proves Tough to Tame handles the surface at Churchill Downs and the one and one-sixteenth mile route distance as well.  

Besides the favorite, this is not the hardest field in the Matt Winn. Considering Tough to Tame enters in good form and shows successful experience at Churchill Downs at the same distance, he could give Cyberknife a scare in the stretch run at double-digit odds once again.

Note how TimeformUS gives Tough to Tame's trainer and jockey combination of Christopher Davis and Jose Lopez a perfect 100 rating. Over the past year, they hit at a 26-percent winning rate out of a sample of 34 starts together. Davis is 0 for 6 at Churchill Downs though. 

With some luck, Tough to Tame might even upset the race. It all depends on how well Cyberknife runs, because if he fails to fire, the race is wide open.

But if Cyberknife runs his race, or improves upon the Arkansas Derby effort in this spot, then the rest of the field is running for second. This Brad Cox-trained colt could potentially find himself in the big 3-year-old races over the summer, including the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

Cyberknife and Tough to Tame are both usable in multi-race wagers.

For a vertical ticket, try an exacta box. Watch the expected payoffs to make sure the exacta box makes sense before playing it though. If the returns appear too low, then consider a win and place bet on Tough to Tame instead.

Win: 6 (at even money or higher)

Exacta box: 2, 6