Sunday Plays: Single Miles Ahead in Bet on Sunshine Stakes

Over at Churchill Downs on Sunday, there are three stakes races on the latter end of the card, with a possible single lurking in the $300,000 Bet On Sunshine Stakes and a good field with a vulnerable favorite in the River City Stakes (G3).

With those two races next to each other on the card, another Daily Double is in play. 

Churchill Downs Race 9: Bet on Sunshine Stakes

Based on his last two races, Miles Ahead stands out.

Back in the local Kelly's Landing Overnight Stakes on July 2, Miles Ahead only lost by a head to Aloha West, last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint champion. In that same race, Bango could only finish a mild fourth by 5 3/4 lengths, and he starts as the morning line favorite in this field. 

Miles Ahead earned a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up effort, which is the highest TimeformUS figure earned without Lasix in the Bet On Sunshine. The high speed figures belong to Sibelius, who is a possible bleeder after his fourth-place finish and 20-point regression minus Lasix in the Phoenix Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

Then in September, Miles Ahead won the local Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes by a nose over Isolate, who previously took the Tale of the Cat Stakes at Saratoga by six lengths and the Work All Week Stakes at Hawthorne as well. Also note the fifth-place finisher in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society, Top Gunner, who lost by 4 1/4 lengths and starts in the Bet On Sunshine as an outsider at 10-1.

Miles Ahead sometimes does not break well, but starting from Post 9 might help him as he can start a bit slow and catch up in the clear, rather than attempt to catch up by weaving through heavy traffic.

With all that in mind, Miles Ahead is the single and a deal at 7/2. If Miles Ahead falls to 5/2, that remains acceptable.

Win: 9 (at 5/2 or higher)

Double: 9 / 5,7,9

Churchill Downs Race 10: River City Stakes (G3)

The favorite Set Piece seems vulnerable with two nine-furlong losses in two tries. In this race, the nine-furlong distance might take the edge off his late run.

Street Ready is an interesting 5-year-old gelding with improved form. He shows three strong efforts in his three most recent starts, including a runner-up loss by a head margin to Soldier Rising in a July 31 Saratoga optional claiming race. Soldier Rising went on to finish third in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) in his next start.

In his two starts after the Saratoga optional claimer, Street Ready ran second to Bye Bye Melvin in another optional claimer at Saratoga and won a Keeneland allowance race on Oct. 23 in gate-to-wire fashion by 1 1/4 lengths. In the winning Keeneland effort, he earned a 123 on TimeformUS.

In Love has been on a five-race losing streak ever since winning the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1) last year. But, In Love did close for second recently in an Oct. 15 Keeneland allowance race and he also faced tough competition earlier in the year when he competed in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) and Manhattan Stakes (G1). Perhaps he gets one more chance.

Also, Pixelate deserves consideration after finishing second to King Cause with no pace to work with in the Knickerbocker Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct last month.

Forget about the sixth-place finish in the Mint Million Stakes at Kentucky Downs before the runner-up at Aqueduct. Back in July, Pixelate also ran a closing third in the Prince Georges County Stakes at Laurel Park with traffic problems in the stretch run.

If the pace heats up in this race, both In Love and Pixelate can fire. But if the pace is slow or moderate, then Street Ready can win from the outside.