Sunday Plays: Play back-wheel keys in Del Mar Futurity

With three talented runners trained by Bob Baffert present in the Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Futurity on Sunday, it seems like a better use of time to concede the race to the silver-haired trainer and find an underneath longshot instead. In other words, this is a situation to find a back-wheel key for second and third.

The most interesting back-wheel key option is Mixto, who makes his second career start as a maiden for trainer Doug O’Neill and Calumet Farm. The reliable connections are a plus, as O’Neill would likely not push this colt into a Grade 1 without a win unless he saw something to give him confidence.

After starting slowly, Mixto did show talent in his local career debut in a six-and-a-half furlong sprint, which just happened last weekend on Sept. 3.

From last, Mixto started to make up ground on the far turn. Jockey Umberto Rispoli had to take his mount wide though because of the traffic ahead.

Once Mixto got clear, he moved forward on his wrong lead. Then he switched leads later in the stretch and passed his stablemate Mucino for fourth. Mixto only missed catching Practical Move for third by half a length.  

In his career debut, Practical Move had finished second to Cave Rock in a local Aug. 13 maiden race with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Cave Rock won that maiden race by an impressive six lengths with a field-high 112 on TimeformUS, and now he enters this race as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

Back to the Sept. 3 race, the first two finishers National Treasure and Massimo were both Baffert-trained. Maybe Mixto came too late to catch them, but he easily was the third best horse without all the traffic problems.

O’Neill must see talent in Mixto in the mornings. Otherwise, he would not wheel this maiden back in a week to compete in a Grade 1 race. Why waste a race unless this colt had the ability to at least pick up a check?

As described above though, Cave Rock enters this race off a dominating maiden win and a high speed figure for Baffert. If Cave Rock does not fire, Baffert can also win the race with two other talented runners in Havnameltdown and Newgate. The former colt won the Best Pal Stakes (G3), while the latter took a local maiden race on July 30 by 3 1/2 lengths.

Since Mixto runs as a closer, he might not catch all of them, especially with the inherent traffic problems closers face in a normal to large-sized fields. But, Mixto could possibly pick up second or third if he moves forward here.

Mixto is also listed as a 20-1 long shot on the morning line, which means most exactas or trifectas with him underneath should pay decently.

Other contenders for second are Agency, who ran second to Havnameltdown in the Best Pal, and Skinner, another maiden with one previous start. Skinner closed for fifth in a local July 24 maiden race for trainer John Shirreffs, who is known as a conservative trainer in terms of spotting his horses.

For this trifecta backwheel, Newgate, Cave Rock and Havnameltdown fit in both the first and second slots. Agency and Skinner are limited to second. Mixto is placed back in third alone, which makes him the backwheel “key.”

To use an exacta backwheel instead, or alongside the trifecta, then just put Newgate, Cave Rock and Havnameltdown in first, and then Mixto alone in second.

Otherwise, use the Baffert runners in multi-race wagers and move on.

Win: 3

Backwheel exacta: 6,7,8 / 3

Backwheel trifecta: 6,7,8 / 2,4,6,7,8 / 3