Sunday play: Speed Boat Beach is best Baffert option in Sham

One of these days, they need to rename the Grade 3, $150,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita after trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the last three editions of this race and six of the last 10 runnings. In this Sunday edition of the Sham, Baffert holds another potent hand with four of the six entries including the expected favorite National Treasure.

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National Treasure last started in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished a respectable third after chasing his stablemate Cave Rock through the the backside and making a move on the far turn before hanging late. 

Even though National Treasure lost by 3 3/4 lengths in third, he deserves credit for competing against the best 2-year-olds at the Breeders' Cup.

Prior to that effort, National Treasure finished second by 5 1/4 lengths to Cave Rock in the local American Pharoah Stakes (G1). He cannot seem to pass that horse. But luckily for him, Cave Rock is not present here. 

No one can blame National Treasure backers to side with him again, as he brings class and tactical speed to the table. But his Baffert stablemate Speed Boat Beach also offers a compelling argument for bettors.

Speed Boat Beach has been running on turf for his past three starts and ended up winning two stakes races in that period including the Speakeasy Stakes and more recently the one-mile Cecil B. DeMillie Stakes (G3). He also tried the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and faded to ninth after pressing the fast pace early.

Besides those turf races though, Speed Boat Beach also broke his maiden on dirt back in September at Del Mar over a strong field.

Completing the trifecta in that maiden race were his own Baffert stablemates Hejazi and Fort Bragg. The former went on to finish third in the American Pharoah in his next start, while the latter colt eventually ran third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) after breaking his maiden.

Speed Boat Beach won his Del Mar maiden race at the 5 1/2-furlong distance, but his recent turf win at one mile shows he can route effectively.

Why did Baffert switch Speed Boat Beach to turf after his maiden win?

Given Speed Boat Beach shares the same owners as Cave Rock, maybe the connections did not want to compete against each other with their own horses leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. With Cave Rock not even working yet though, they wisely chose to switch Speed Boat Beach back to the dirt surface at this point on the Derby trail.

In any case, Speed Boat Beach owns a dirt win over good horses who eventually placed in graded stakes races, and he also owns multiple stakes wins on turf. With little doubt, he possesses the class to win this Grade 3 dirt race.

At least Speed Boat Beach is 5-2 on the morning line, and not 2-1 like his stablemate National Treasure. Given National Treasure exits the Breeders’ Cup, the public will likely keep him as the favorite in live wagering, while Speed Boat Beach will end up as the second choice.

Newgate finished second to another Baffert stablemate in Havnameltdown in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar two months ago. In the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, he faded to fifth after pressing the pace. He also faded to fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) after pressing the pace.

Given Speed Boat Beach’s presence, maybe this pace scenario does not favor Newgate. Newgate might even leave his stablemate alone, as horses hailing from the same barn typically do not contest the lead.

Reincarnate feels like a step below his other three Baffert stablemates in this spot. Notice he lost to a green Fort Bragg two starts ago at Santa Anita. In his most recent start, Reincarnate broke his maiden by 3/4 of a length at Del Mar over another Baffert colt Mr Fisk, who broke his maiden on this course in his next start by the same small margin. 

As for Spun Intended, the Mark Glatt entry who broke his maiden by Del Mar on Nov. 26 by a flashy 6 1/2 lengths, he needs to route for the first time while making his graded stakes debut. At this point, a watch-and-see approach seems best with this runner, especially with four Baffert entries in the race.

Like Speed Boat Beach, the last entry Packs a Wahlop shows multiple stakes wins on turf before an eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But this Creative Cause colt ran fourth in his career debut on dirt and therefore needs to prove himself on this surface before trusting him.  

At 5-2 or higher, Speed Boat Beach is the choice. Skipping is also a viable option, as races where one trainer controls over half the field do not seem like good betting opportunities most of the time. Watch the board carefully.

Win: 3 (at 5-2 or higher)