Sunday Play: Leave No Trace offers value in Spinaway

Without an obvious Echo Zulu-type filly to latch onto, this year’s Grade 1, $300,000 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga offers a fun handicapping challenge. The seven-furlong race on Sunday contains 10 well-matched fillies to bet on.

In 2-year-old stakes races, one way to find value is to seek out a good horse without recognizable trainers or owners. The public tends to bet popular connections, and even more in baby races that lack form to go on.

The filly who fits the under-the-radar connections category in this spot is Leave No Trace. The daughter of Outwork is trained by Philip Serpe and owned by WellSpring Stables, while Jose Lezcano takes over the mount from the popular Irad Ortiz Jr. If this filly does get bet, it will not be because of those three names.

Some handicappers might find concern with the switch to Lezcano. Yes, it is not a great sign that Ortiz Jr. leaves this filly for Aunt Shirley. But on the plus side, Lezcano tends to work well with Serpe-trained horses. According to TimeformUS, the Lezcano and Serpe combination is rated a perfect 100.

Leave No Trace made her career debut on July 20 with Ortiz Jr. on board in a local five-and-a-half furlong sprint. After stalking the leading group in a strung-out field, Leave No Trace began to tip outside on the turn and easily went by the three runners in front. At that point, Leave No Trace was pulling clear from the field and looked like a certain winner. 

On the outside, the dirtied-up Stellar Lady rallied in the stretch, but she never posed a real threat to Leave No Trace. Leave No Trace held a sizable margin by then under mild urging and continued on to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

Leave No Trace earned a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 83 BRIS Speed Rating for the maiden win, which are not impressive numbers at first glance. Regardless, she moved well and finished the race in a professional manner.  

Also notice the 10 3/4 lengths between the runner-up Stellar Lady and the third-place U Glow Girl. Even if the winner only finishes first by a mild margin, it is still a great sign to see two horses separate from the field.

As another important note, U Glow Girl went on to break her maiden by 7 1/4 lengths in a local Aug. 17 maiden race. Now, maybe trainer Brad Cox did not crank U Glow Girl up for the July 20 race, but her blowout win at the maiden level still works as a good sign for Leave No Trace’s chances to fare well against better fillies.

For a more conventional pick, also consider Kaling on the rail. She owns a field-high 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her local maiden win on July 24. Of course, some of the value is taken out with Todd Pletcher as the trainer.  

Aunt Shirley broke her maiden at Ellis Park on Aug. 5 by half a length. But Irad Ortiz Jr. chose this filly over Leave No Trace, which means he must see something good. Then again, maybe Ortiz is just loyal to the owner WinStar Farm.

Wonder Wheel is in the mix as well. Although the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs has not come back strong, Wonder Wheel does show a strong workout in company with maiden winner Bring Theband Home on Aug. 19. Watch the video on XBTV.

Given the under-the-radar connections though, and the overall value, Leave No Trace is the top selection. She works as a win and place bet.

Win/place: 6 (at 5-1 or higher)