Analysis: Slow pace aided Mask in Mucho Macho Man Stakes win
By Reinier Macatangay
Without question, Mask is a promising 3-year-old horse from the Chad Brown barn. He won the one-mile, $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes by more six lengths on Saturday, prompting fans to catapult this horse into their 2018 Kentucky Derby lists. But, it is important to take a step back and look at how the Tapit colt won the race so easily, as it appeared aided by a slow early pace. A sluggish pace, usually indicated by slow fractions, is a speed horse's best friend.
Horses do not always run the same race regardless of pace. For a front-runner, a fast pace will make it difficult to stay in the mix toward the end. Likewise, an opposite slow pace scenario will give a speed horse the advantage. Combine a slow pace with little to no direct pressure on the leader, and the leader should win if there is quality.
In Mask's big Gulfstream Park win over the weekend, the field let him get away with slow early fractions and a mostly uncontested lead.
Stop the video at :25. Mask breaks well and secures the lead, with a little space between him and the runner-up.
Now stop the video at :33. Mask still leads through an opening fraction of 24.43 seconds and keeps the separation between him and Forever Taken and Whereshetoldmetogo. Forever Taken makes a nominal inside move to put token pressure on Mask. But when a lower-class horse tries such a move, he's sent back to reality.
At 1:05, the half goes in 48.13 separation, and Mask remains in control with the same separation as earlier. Forever Taken is put away, while the others attempt to start their serious running.
Mask kept too much in reserve, though, after getting away with a slow pace and no real competition on his flank. Because he got away with a slow opening half, it is like he never raced in the early parts. For a horse coming off a sprint win, getting the half in 48 is a cakewalk. This ensured Mask went into the far turn loaded, when he began to pull clear on his own will impressively.
However, ask this question: If the same field gave Grade 3 Sham Stakes winner McKinzie an uncontested lead through a 48 half, would he destroy the field in a similar fashion? What if the leader was Good Magic? At least those two 3-year-old stars own successful two-turn experience.
Furthermore, the final speed figures for Mask ended up average at best. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and approximately a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The TimeformUS Speed Figure maker Craig Milkowski commented on the slow pace in a Tweet.
Additionally, XBTV's Richard Migliore commented on the slow Mucho Macho Man pace.
The point is, a long road ahead remains for Mask. A slow-paced win at a one-turn mile is what it is, and this promising runner will need to show his talents around two turns against perhaps better competition and a bit more adversity than a gifted lead.