Shining Copper, Yoshida offer value in Old Forester Turf Classic

One race before the 2018 Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1, $500,000 Turf Classic is an important race for connections and bettors alike. Two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan captured this event in 2013 and 2014, and other names such as Manila, Lure, Paradise Creek and English Channel show up on the winners list too.

This edition lacks a true standout on paper, but perhaps a new star will emerge. Whoever that is will need to defeat the consistent favorite Beach Patrol.

There is nothing to hate about Beach Patrol. The 5-year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid endured a swift pace in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar chasing Oscar Performance, and even grabbed the lead before giving way to Talismanic.

Before the Breeders’ Cup, Beach Patrol scored wins in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont -- not to be confused with this race -- and the Arlington Million (G1).

His past performances are easy to read, and he is trained by turf expert Chad Brown. Therefore, he will not offer too much value, but is a solid horse nonetheless.

One runner who does offer value is Shining Copper, who starts next to Deauville in the second slot. He did some traveling in March, finishing second in a Barbados race. Prior to that, he took the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream in January.

The Gulfstream effort is a strong one, as he led all the way under some pressure, and refused to let One Go All Go pass him in the stretch. Do not take the 24.43, 48.52 opening fractions literally, as they actually went at a fast clip.

TimeformUS Speed Figure Maker Craig Milkowski wrote in wrote in the Daily Racing Form about the effort: “Case of winner running them off their feet - all fraction coded as fast.”

A few months later, One Go All Go won the Elkhorn Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

If the pace is moderate to slow, Shining Copper can take them all the way. Things can change on the track, but on paper no other overwhelming pace presence exists.

Another longshot to consider is Yoshida, who comes into this race off a layoff. He last started in October, when he won the Hill Prince Stakes (G3) at Belmont in a blanket finish. A couple of people might question the lower speed figures.

Yoshida was a developing 3-year-old horse last year. His debut came in November 2016, and then he went on the shelf and did not start until the following April. He only made six starts in 2017 and seven overall. He could be improved now.

In fact, considering his age, connections and talent, this horse holds the potential to become a turf star if he can put it together in 2018.

Time to discuss the other runners.

On the rail, morning line second choice Deauville is a little questionable.

For one, despite winning the 2016 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1), he just seems like a slight money burner, losing his last two North American races at 3-1 and below 2-1. Furthermore, his two most recent starts include a loss in the Earl of Sefton Stakes (G3) and an 11th-place finish in the Hong Kong Cup (G1).

His only win since the Belmont Derby is a Group 3 event last May. He lost 13 times overall dating back to May 2016, leaving him untrustworthy on top. But he can win.

Bettors will also want to look at Kurilov, who just missed by a neck against Heart to Heart in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1). To put a downer on the effort though, he did enjoy a perfect trip saving ground on the rail and switching out.

With Brown as the trainer, it is hard to ignore Kurilov. On the other hand, the Brown name might knock down his overall value. Expect a decent run.

Fans of Kitten’s Joy may show interest in Camelot Kitten, who last started in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park in March. He won in a solid effort. Nevertheless, nothing stands out when looking at Camelot Kitten’s record. It just feels like an obligation to give any son of Kitten’s Joy on turf an extra look.

Another plausible contender is Synchrony, the winner of two straight graded stakes races at Fair Grounds. On turf, he is admirably consistent showing three wins and two seconds out of five starts. He must be thrown into most vertical wagers.

The rest of the field includes Channel Maker, Arklow and Editore. While those horses are decent closers, not every runner can be picked, at least not in the win spot.

Beach Patrol is the main choice, while Shining Copper and Yoshida are the value picks. Pay attention to Yoshida’s odds though, as he might become hammered.

As a final note, remember there is an Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby Pick 3 which starts on Friday. This leg definitely feels like a spread race.