What we learned: Shancelot's loss could be bettors' gain

Too often, handicappers become discouraged by recent losses in a horse's record. But losing a couple races in a row doesn't always equate to poor form.

For example, Shancelot was defeated Saturday in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) by Omaha Beach to mark his second loss in a row. But there is not enough evidence to label this speedy colt as a chronic loser. 

For example, the fade to third in the Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) at Saratoga is excusable because of the dead rail. Shancelot accomplished most of his work inside, and he still tried to open up in the stretch before fading.

From the same Aug. 24 Saratoga card, dead rail victims Wow Cat and Owendale improved in their next starts. Wow Cat finished a good second in the Beldame Stakes (G2), while Owendale won the Oklahoma Derby (G3).

Not every inside horse on that Saratoga card improved next time, but Shancelot still deserves the benefit of the doubt so far.

In the Sprint Championship, Shancelot broke on top with a two-length lead and fractions of 21.87 and 44.38. Those numbers appear moderate to fast, although with the emphasis on a safe racetrack making for a deep surface at Santa Anita, they could very well be blistering.

Approaching the far turn, Shancelot kept Flagstaff at bay. But turning for home, he also gave Omaha Beach room to run up the inside.

Shancelot battled Omaha Beach and lost by a head. But is that bad? Omaha Beach won the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn this year, and almost ran as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby.

While Omaha Beach came from off the layoff, he also put forth a top effort when breaking his maiden at seven furlongs at Santa Anita back in February.

No matter which Breeders' Cup race Omaha Beach enters, he will be considered one of the main choices. Even if some handicappers do not believe in the Saratoga dead rail, it is hard to deny Shancelot ran a big race at Santa Anita, too.

Think of Shancelot's two losses as a blessing in disguise betting-wise in the Breeders' Cup, or any other race if the connections decide to pass. If Shancelot had kept his undefeated record, he might have started in the Sprint as a heavy favorite.

But some bettors will hesitate now, leaving him higher than even money.

Tiz the Law backs up numbers in Champagne Stakes

Bettors who constantly choose the top speed figure horse without thinking about other factors will lose in the long run. But in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, Tiz the Law backed up the numbers.

Tiz the Law started as the second choice at 7/5, despite owning the top speed figure on TimeformUS, Beyer and Brisnet. Because Tiz the Law broke his maiden in a New York-bred race, Green Light Go held as favorite.

But at the finish, Tiz the Law appeared in another league than Green Light Go.

Tiz the Law's lone flaw in this winning effort came in the first half, where he seemed a touch difficult to handle. These are still babies, after all.

Approaching the turn, Tiz the Law did well to sit in the pocket and take dirt behind Green Light Go and Gozilla, with Big City Bob right outside them. Once Manny Franco tipped Tiz the Law outside, the race was over. He drew clear under mostly a hand ride to win by four lengths.

Green Light Go held second by a neck over Big City Bob, with a half-length back to Gozilla in fourth, and a head back to Alpha Sixty Six in fifth.

How bad did the public misjudge Green Light Go? Despite winning the Saratoga Special (G2) by 3 ¾ lengths, he barely held off Big City Bob for second. Previous to this race, Big City Bob won the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth by a neck over Skyscanner, a slow Laurel maiden winner.

As for Gozilla in fourth, it is clear he is not any kind of monster.

But Tiz the Law could develop into a monster, or at least the next Funny Cide for this team of trainer Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stables.

Wide trip costs Gouverneur Morris in Breeders' Futurity

For a 2-year-old colt making his second career start and switching to a two-turn route, Gouverneur Morris ran well in the Breeders' Futurity (G1).

Unfortunately, Maxfield turned in an even better performance.

Gouverneur Morris broke from the outside post and went about four-wide into the first turn, which probably cost him a length or two.

Also notice Tap It To Win's trip into the first turn. The second choice on the board did not settle down, signaling that routing is not for him. 

Gouverneur Morris settled well enough, sitting outside the leaders in sixth after a half-mile. 

He then made a nice move to secure the lead briefly on the far turn, while still running a bit wide. But Maxfield came up alongside Gouverneur Morris and blew by him with a sharp move to win by 5 ½ lengths. 

On paper, it looked like Maxfield defeated a weak field when he broke his maiden. But he obviously moved forward in his second start.

Gouverneur Morris could still develop into a top horse. To put the effort into perspective, he was runner-up in a Grade 1 in his second career start.