Saudi Cup 2023 pace should favor Baffert stalking duo
On paper, the pace for the Group 1, $20 million Saudi Cup next Saturday at King Abdulaziz Racecourse falls on the fast side with two dedicated pacesetters present. With that in mind, the race could fall into the hands of either the division leader Taiba or his stablemate Country Grammer.
In many of these big races, trainer Bob Baffert enters at least one big pacesetter who thrives on leading early. But his star Taiba and last year’s Saudi Cup runner-up Country Grammer both run as natural stalkers.
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Near the end of December, Taiba tracked the pacesetter Forbidden Kingdom in the Malibu Stakes (G1) at the shorter seven-furlong distance. But in September in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), Taiba traveled in fourth through the middle stages before taking over in the stretch run.
When Country Grammer competed in last year’s Saudi Cup, he took up the pocket position right behind Secret Ambition and Art Collector. Although he responded well in the stretch, the local horse Emblem Road ended up mowing them all down. Country Grammer finished second in a valiant effort.
Baffert could end up trying to surprise the competition by sending Taiba or Country Grammer to the lead. But that is not how they run. If one of them could set the pace now, then why do they not set the pace more often?
Instead, expect either the familiar Crown Pride or turf runner Panthalassa to set the pace. Both runners hail from Japan and bring plenty of speed.
Most Americans remember Crown Pride in the Kentucky Derby as the presser while Summer Is Tomorrow set a blazing pace through the first two quarters. Crown Pride tried to stay in contention through the far turn while battling with Messier before the suicidal pace took its toll.
Even with the poor Derby memory in mind, Crown Pride has shown in his most recent start that he can sit off another horse and still respond in the stretch. In the Champions Cup (G1) two months ago, Crown Pride let the eager Red Soldado cross over on the first turn. Crown Pride ended up sitting off of him throughout the backside.
Although Crown Pride did not win, he responded well in the stretch before the closing Jun Light Bolt picked off all the horses in front to win.
Expect Crown Pride to sit off Panthalassa, who loves to set the pace on grass. In fact, Panthalassa gave the impression of a run-off pacesetter in the Tenno Sho (G1) in October when he led by double-digit lengths for most of the race. Panthalassa understandably felt the effects of his super aggressive strategy and became tired late. Equinox caught him.
The way Panthalassa ran in the Tenno Sho feels reminiscent of the popular American turf horse Presious Passion, who would open up by daylight early and attempt to hold on in the stretch run.
In some of his other races, Panthalassa leads by a smaller amount. Regardless, Panthalassa wants to see himself setting the pace.
Can Panthalassa secure the lead on dirt in the Saudi Cup? The connections are likely to let him roll and run his preferred style. As long as he can grip the surface in a decent manner, Panthalassa should lead for the first half.
With Crown Pride pressing Panthalassa, Taiba and Country Grammer can sit back two or three lengths behind and attack at the right moment.
From behind, Emblem Road might even make a bold attempt at a repeat win. In last year’s Saudi Cup, Emblem Road’s jockey wisely kept him in the clear and away from kickback while traveling near the back, and then he circled the field on the turn and ran all of them down in the stretch.
But the pace did not seem very fast last year. Art Collector pressed the leader Secret Ambition, and Art Collector typically has not been a fast horse in terms of early pace. He leads or presses the leader when the pace is mild.
With the front part of the field clumped in a group, Emblem Road managed to gobble up ground quickly. But if Panthalassa and Crown Pride contest a truly fast pace while thinning out the field, Emblem Road might end up with too much work left to do in the stretch.
This Saudi Cup seems to favor stalkers, and the two best stalkers present are Taiba and Country Grammer. In all likelihood, Baffert probably will take home the prize.