Saturday plays: Who has best ability and pedigree in Remsen?

Given the nine-furlong distance of the Grade 2, $250,000 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, finding out who wants more ground at this stage of their careers is as important a factor when handicapping this race as sheer ability and talent. One entry with a famous pedigree seems to hit all those categories.

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Dornoch, the full brother to Kentucky Derby champion Mage, is the key in the Remsen Stakes double connecting with the Grade 2, $500,000 Cigar Mile. First though, here is a selection for an earlier allowance race.

Aqueduct Race 6: Allowance

Ever since switching barns through a claim four starts ago, Rocco Strong has been on the upswing for his new trainer Michelle Giangiulio.

On Sept. 21, Rocco Strong won a local one-mile claiming race at the $25,000 level by 4 1/2 lengths after making a wide and powerful move without any visible urging from jockey Kendrick Carmouche. In the stretch, Carmouche gave the improved gelding mostly a handride as he coasted home.

One month later, Rocco Strong took a step up to the allowance level in another one-mile race and this time lost by three-quarters of a length. Despite the loss, Rocco Strong deserves credit for moving against a slow pace set by the runner-up Cascais, who barely held second by a head over Rocco Strong.

Out of the October race, the winner Signator went on to take a local allowance optional claimer on Nov. 12 in his next start over Costa Terra in second, while the fifth-place Quality Chic won a local Nov. 5 allowance race.

Considering the quality of his opponents last time and how well he ran in his last two starts, Rocco Strong is the top choice.

Win/place: 6 (at 7/2 or higher).

Aqueduct Race 9: Remsen Stakes (G2)

Dornoch enters this race with great form after breaking his maiden by 6 1/2 lengths at Keeneland in a 1 1/16-mile race. TimeformUS gave him a 110 for the winning effort, which ties for the highest last-out figure.

Visually the only downside to his maiden win was his greenness in the stretch, where he ran awkwardly without switching leads. But the fact that Dornoch won without turning in his best effort is a great sign.

Dornoch owns stakes experience as well. One start before the winning maiden race, Dornoch ran in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park on Aug. 26 and ended up second by one length to Noted. When factoring in that Dornoch endured a wide trip on both turns, he arguably was the best horse in defeat.    

According to TimeformUS pace projector, Dornoch possibly faces other pace opponents such as Le Dom Bro and Private Desire. Billal, Where’s Chris and Copper Tax should also flash their tactical speed. But none of those outright needs the lead the others could leave Dornoch alone out front.

If the pace gets too hot in the first quarter, Dornoch could end up sitting off other horses. He does not need the lead, as he almost won the Sapling after initially stalking the pace. Dornoch only needs to sharpen up how he runs in the stretch and act more professional. If he could make a smooth lead switch, that would help him win. 

From a pedigree standpoint, Dornoch is supposed to stretch out to nine furlongs easily as a full sibling to Kentucky Derby champion Mage.

Based on the talent he has shown in three starts and the potential for moving forward, Dornoch is the choice. Expect him to give a great effort as the favorite.

Win: 3 (at 8/5 or higher).

Double: 3 with 3,7.

Aqueduct Race 10: Cigar Mile (G2)

Given his recent company, Senor Buscador is the classiest horse in the field, and now faces easier horses in this Grade 2 race. 

In his most recent start, Senor Buscador could fare no better than seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He only lost by 5 1/4 lengths though and running seventh at the highest level still means he turned in a fast race.

Four starts ago in the San Diego Handicap (G2), Senor Buscador made a nice closing move from last to win over Slow Down Andy in second. A few months later, Slow Down Andy won the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita in gate-to-wire fashion, while Senor Buscador closed for third.

But the San Diego effort in July is notable because of the shorter 1 1/16-mile distance, which is closer to the distance of this one-mile race on Saturday. Senor Buscador looks sharper in shorter routes. 

If Senor Buscador can find a way through traffic, he will contend.

Another closer to consider is Three Technique, who repeatedly starts in races with slow pace scenarios. For those using TimeformUS, notice all the blue fractions in his past four races.

Back in July, Three Technique overcame the slow pace to capture the John A. Nerud Stakes (G2) at Belmont. After a three-month layoff, he then ran a closing third in the one-mile Ack Ack Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs behind winner Zozos, won in gate-to-wire fashion after setting slow fractions.

Forget about Three Technique’s eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Despite the 44.35-second half-mile, TimeformUS labels the fraction in blue for slow, and they also label the 56.40-second five-furlong fraction as slow.

With all the speed horses in this race, including the blazing Pipeline, Coastal Mission, Evero Mischievous and Offaly Cool, both Three Technique and Senor Buscador should receive the appropriate pace.