Saturday plays: Use Locked and 2 long shots in Breeders' Futurity
Playing Locked in the Grade 1, $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Saturday does not come without some hesitation. The son of Gun Runner makes his graded stakes debut as just a maiden winner, and most horseplayers know exciting maiden winners do not always pan out.
Nevertheless, Locked is the focus of the exacta wheel below. But first, here is a double connecting a loaded 2-year-old allowance optional claiming race to the Grade 2, $350,000 Woodford Stakes one race later.
Keeneland race 4: 2-year-old allowance
Valentine Candy found graded stakes company too tough in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. After chasing a fast pace from a wide stalking position, he faded to ninth and lost by 10 lengths to the winner Nutella Fella.
In this spot, Valentine Candy takes a class drop and also cuts back to six furlongs. The son of Justify broke his maiden at this distance at Saratoga with a 108 TimeformUS speed figure, which is fast for a maiden race in July.
General Partner ran fourth in Valentine Candy’s fast maiden win and returned to break his maiden by four lengths in his next start. He now starts as a one of the main contenders in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct this week.
Based on class, Valentine Candy is the choice.
Win: 4 (at 2-1 or longer)
Double: 4 with 4,5
Keeneland race 5: Woodford Stakes (G2)
With a fast pace on paper, the race sets up for closers.
One viable option is Eye Witness, who made a closing bid for third in the Mahony Stakes at Saratoga while only losing second by half a length to Private Creed. In his next start, Private Creed won the Franklin-Simpson Stakes (G2) at Kentucky Downs to back up the quality of Eye Witness’ effort.
Another option is Arzak, the winner of an allowance optional claiming race on Aug. 23 at Saratoga in his last start. Note that fourth-place finisher Thin White Duke. He ended up winning the Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga in his next start. Also, the runner-up Coppola won an optional claimer at Churchill Downs when he made his next start as well.
Eye Witness and Arzak both come into this race as double-digit long shots. The race appears wide open though with speed, which means they can win with the right trip.
Keeneland race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Many impressive maiden winners receive the special label and do not pan out, but Locked could end up as one of those talents who moves forward.
In his career debut in a six-furlong Aug. 5 maiden race at Saratoga, Locked made a closing bid from last to finish third while only losing by 3 1/2 lengths to Just Steel. The impressive part came in the gallop out, where Locked easily went by Just Steel and the runner-up Be You with plenty of energy.
Locked benefited from the stretch out to one mile in his next start. This time, he pressed the long shot pacesetter Arteta before taking control and opening up easily in the stretch for a 7 1/4-length win that looks even better visually.
Locked earned a 110 on TimeformUS in his maiden romp. In all likelihood, Locked could run a lot faster if asked. Again, he looked superb visually and could indeed become special as time goes on.
Now to consider some options for second.
From the rail, The Wine Steward might close well enough for the runner-up position. In his most recent start, he won the Funny Cide Stakes for New York-breds at Saratoga by a head over El Grande O, who flattered the winner by taking the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes for New York-breds at Aqueduct by 8 1/4 lengths in his next start.
Because The Wine Steward ran against New York-breds, bettors might leave him alone too. On TimeformUS, he fits here with his 101 figure.
Another long shot option for second is Just Steel. Although Just Steel faded to seventh in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, he set the pace under pressure through grueling early fractions of 22.19 and 44.89 seconds. TimeformUS labeled the first three Hopeful fractions in red.
Just Steel might improve in this spot if the pace goes moderate. His chances move up if the fast Timberlake opts to run in the Champagne.
The play is to key Locked over those two long shots.
Win: 9 (at even-money or longer)
Exacta wheel: 9 over 1,7