Saturday plays: Upset Alabama pick + Pacific Classic and more

Both Del Mar and Saratoga offer nice cards on Saturday, with the former hosting the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic for older horses and the latter running the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. In each of those two stakes races, the entrants must travel the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on dirt.   

At first glance, the Pacific Classic is the more open race. But, there is an argument for Malathaat not looking as strong as the public thinks in the Alabama.

Here is analysis for four races on the Aug. 21 Saratoga card, including two graded stakes races and two maiden races, and the featured race at Del Mar.

Saratoga Race 1: 2YO Maiden

Major General was a recent selection on the blog before. Unfortunately, he did not draw in off the also-eligible list and now reappears in this maiden race.

After watching his works on Aug. 1 and 7 on XBTV, there is no reason not to pick the Todd Pletcher-trained colt again. He looks ready to fire.

In the Aug. 7 work, Major General was moving better than the unraced Pioneer of Medina on the far turn. While he lightly lugs into Pioneer of Medina in the stretch gallop out, once Major General finally switches leads, he opens up on him towards the wire.

In the Aug. 1 work, Major General had his workmate Bellinger beat by the turn. This is in contrast to their previous works together where they ran about even with each other.

As an added positive, Luis Saez picks up the mount.

Major General is the choice to start the day on the right foot. For value underneath, think about Gilded Age, Judge Davis and Bourbon Heist.

Top selection: #1A: Major General (3-1)

Underneath: #3 Gilded Age (8-1), #5 Judge David (12-1), #7 Bourbon Heist (8-1)

Saratoga Race 7: 2YO Maiden

Cogburn sports an excellent pedigree for a first-time starter. This is a son of the precocious stallion Not This Time out of the dam In a Jif.

Not This Time won two of four lifetime starts, including the Iroquois Stakes (G3) in his third start. He also ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before an injury ended his career. As for In a Jif, she broke her maiden at first asking in June 2013.

Cogburn is also trained by Steve Asmussen, who uses his top jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. It is always nice to wager on a reliable team.  

Watch Cogburn’s Aug. 9 work in company with Time for Cupid, who crossed the wire first in a July 10 maiden race at Lone Star Park only to become disqualified. Cogburn always looks like he is moving better than Time for Cupid throughout the work.

Cogburn is worthy of single consideration. For value underneath, think about longshots such as Triumphant Road, Skate to Heaven and Fromanothamutha.   

Top selection: #9 Cogburn (3-1)

Underneath: #3 Triumphant Road (12-1), #4 Skate to Heaven (12-1), Fromanothamutha (20-1)

Saratoga Race 9: Lake Placid Stakes (G2)

Technical Analysis is an obvious top contender after winning the local Lake George Stakes (G2) for trainer Chad Brown. There is no reason she cannot win again in the Lake Placid Stakes.

With that said, Spanish Loveaffair is not without a shot. Back in February, this filly beat Con Lima in the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. Two starts ago, she also ran second by ¾ of a length in the Regret Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. Forget about the fade in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1), as she cuts back in distance now.

The maiden Ego Trip is in with a chance too. While she only shows two runner-up finishes to start off her career, maidens in stakes races are generally live. Otherwise, why would the connections even attempt this kind of jump early?

Top selection: #2 Technical Analysis (6/5)

Contender: #6 Spanish Loveaffair (3-1)

Best value: #3 Ego Trip (6-1)

Saratoga Race 10: Alabama Stakes (G1)

Played Hard is an improving filly who carries a two-race winning streak into this race, and part of the reason for the recent wins is the switch to route distances.

Two starts ago, Played Hard tried a two-turn route for the first time in a maiden race at Churchill Downs and led them all the way for a 5 ¼-length victory. Last month, Played Hard stretched out even more in a local nine furlong allowance race at Saratoga, and once again she secured the lead and opened up late for a 4 3/4-length victory.

From a pedigree standpoint, Played Hard’s bottom side is excellent for longer routes. Played Hard’s dam Well Lived is a full sister to the stakes dirt router Well Armed, who won the 2009 Dubai World Cup among other route races in his career.

Of course, Malathaat is still the best filly in this race in terms of proven class. Earlier this year, she won the Ashland Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Oaks, and only lost the local Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) because of early pressure.

Because Clairiere went to press Malathaat at an early point in the CCAO and Malathaat took the heat and still fought in the stretch, there is a fair argument Malathaat ran better than Maracuja. Maracuja only had to pass a weakened Malathaat after sitting a few lengths behind the pair.

The only downfall with betting Malathaat is the filly’s huge following. There is no chance of ever getting fair odds or an overlay on Malathaat. Expect 3/5 or less.

Army Wife also has a chance at winning. As with Played Hard, Army Wife carries a two-race winning streak into the Alabama. The difference is that Army Wife’s two recent wins came in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and Iowa Oaks (G3), rather than maiden or allowance races. She also ran a troubled third in the Gazelle Stakes (G3).

The experience in graded stakes races helps Army Wife prepare her for this Grade 1. Then again, Played Hard holds the speed advantage.

Top pick: #5 Played Hard (15-1)

Contender: #6 Malathaat (1-1), #7 Army Wife (6-1)

Del Mar Race 10: Pacific Classic (G1)

If Royal Ship finds his best form this weekend, he wins.

Back in April, Royal Ship earned a 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure when winning the Californian Stakes (G2) over Country Grammer. One month later, Royal Ship then finished second to Country Grammer in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). However, Royal Ship still earned a lofty 129 on TimeformUS for his narrow loss in the Gold Cup.

The concern is that Royal Ship only finished a mild third in the local San Diego Handicap (G2) in preparation for the Pacific Classic (G1). Maybe trainer Richard Mandella did not crank up Royal Ship for the San Diego, as it makes more sense to peak in Grade 1 races. Also, Royal Ship is probably better at longer routes, as opposed to middle route distances.

Also pay attention to Tripoli, who was second in the San Diego. He only lost by half a length Express Train, who is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Pacific Classic. Tripoli is 5-1 on the morning line. Yet, there is probably little difference in ability between Express Train and Tripoli. At 1 ¼ miles, Tripoli might even move forward.

Finally, give some consideration to Dr Post as well. In his most recent start, he made a strong closing move to win the Monmouth Cup (G3) in a handride. Earlier in the year, Dr Post also won the Westchester Stakes (G3) at Belmont. This horse owns some ability. The only question is whether he can handle 1 ¼ miles.

Top selection: #4 Royal Ship (7/2)

Best value: #1 Tripoli (5-1)

Contender: #3 Dr Post (4-1)