Saturday plays: Bet 3 races, including 2 stakes, at Keeneland

Although trainer Victoria Oliver does not win graded stakes races often, she has a good chance in the Grade 2, $350,000 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland with the 4-year-old gelding Trademark, who brings an ideal stalking style to this race. Trademark can also withstand a fast pace, as shown in his most recent start.

A recap of Trademark’s last race is included below, as well as a suggested double connecting to the maiden turf race after the Fayette. Before the analysis on the double though is a selection and win bet for the $200,000 Bowman Mill Stakes earlier on the card.

Keeneland race 6: Bowman Mill Stakes

Patriot Spirit gave a promising effort in his Aug. 25 career debut at Colonial Downs when he broke his maiden by six lengths in a seven-furlong sprint.

Behind Patriot Spirit in that maiden race were some decent runners. The runner-up Linzer went on to finish a close second in a maiden special weight at Keeneland on Oct. 7, while third-place Classic Joke broke his maiden at Pimlico next time.

Patriot Spirit faded to sixth in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his next start after running off with a four-length lead in the opening half. Cross that race out as he found the distance too far. 

The son of Constitution will enjoy the cutback to six furlongs in this spot and the switch to jockey Flavien Prat is always a plus as wel. 

Win: 5 (at 9/2 or higher)

Keeneland race 9: Fayette Stakes (G2)

When Trademark last raced in the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs, he initially ran in third under a tight hold and only two lengths off the pacesetter Five Star General through the opening quarter in 23.12.

After that point, Americanrevolution began to press Five Star General through a half-mile in 46.66, which TimeformUS labeled in red for fast. Trademark kept pace behind them in third, but he needed to use energy to keep up with them. He had 2 1/2 lengths on Whelen Springs in fourth.

On the far turn, Five Star General threw in the towel and started to back up quickly. Trademark made his move to go after the new leader Americanrevolution, who was spent after chasing the fast pacesetter.

Trademark took the lead, but the closer Clapton had all the benefit of lagging 10 lengths behind Five Star General through those early fractions. Clapton caught Trademark near the wire and won by a narrow margin of a head, while Trademark lost nothing considering the pace.

Despite finishing second, Trademark deserves credit for running hard in both the first and last portions of the race. His pace rivals Americanrevolution and Five Star General ended up sixth and eighth respectively, and even Whelen Springs faded from his earlier fourth position to second-to-last in seventh.

Horses who exit a race in which they were pace compromised tend to fare well in their next start. In the Fayette, Trademark might need to work hard again in the first half with speed horses such as Best Actor, Giant Game, Speed Bias and Film Star lined up, but he can sit a few lengths off the leaders and Post 10 will allow him to settle into the clear and adjust appropriately depending on the initial strategy of his foes.

Even though he is listed as the favorite, the public will not go out of their way to bet Trademark with jockey Martin Garcia on board and Victoria Oliver as the trainer. When the live betting begins, the rail entry Film Star could make a run for public favoritism. 

As long as Trademark hovers around his morning line odds or higher, he is the choice.  

Win: 10 (at 7/2 or longer)

Double: 10 with 5,11

Double: 10 with 6 (for less money)

Keeneland race 10: 2-year-old maiden special weight on turf

Deadpan set the pace in his Sept. 2 career debut at Colonial Downs before fading only slightly to third in a mile and one-sixteenth turf route. The race likely made him more fit and ready to face the same distance in this spot.

Out of that Colonial Downs race, the winner Fulmineo went on to finish second in the Pilgrim Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, which is a significant prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita next week.

Another interesting option is Vivaldi, who made a mild move to finish fifth in a one-mile maiden turf race at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 9. Given the strange course configuration at that track, he deserves a pass as he makes his second start for trainer Chad Brown.

Also take a look at Domingo, a son of American Pharoah making his career debut. TimeformUS rates the combination of jockey Declan Cannon and trainer Brendan Walsh a perfect 100 with a 26-percent win rate, which hints Walsh may consider this first-timer live since he put a trusted jockey on the colt.