Saturday plays: Play for value in 2 Keeneland stakes

With a strong field containing three Derby also-rans and three other runners knocking at the door, the $250,000 Perryville Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday offers bettors a good opportunity to score on a familiar name or two, or play against them. The Derby pacesetter Verifying stands as the even-money favorite, but he could lose this one. 

One of the other two Derby also-rans looks like a viable contender ready to move forward on the cutback to seven furlongs. Read the case for his chances below, along with a final trifecta wheel for the race. Also included is a final win bet for the Grade 2, $350,000 Raven Run Stakes later on the card.

Keeneland race 6: Perryville Stakes

Verifying brings a high speed figure from his second-place finish in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga. Yet, it felt disappointing when the third-place Arabian Lion and fourth-place Fort Bragg both failed to win next time in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), although Fort Bragg did run third and did not miss by a huge margin. 

Besides that concern, Verifying barely held on by a nose over Raise Cain in the Indiana Derby (G2) in July. If Verifying could only hold on by a nose over Raise Cain just a few months ago, what is the difference now?

Raise Cain overcame a slow pace in order to battle Verifying, which makes his runner-up finish better. Verifying did not set the pace, but he had the benefit of tracking an overmatched leader through a slow pace. 

After pressing the leader Transect through fractions of 24.19 and 48.47, Verifying went forward and took the lead on the far turn while facing a brief challenge to his right from the longshot Georgie W. In contrast, Raise Cain made a wide move from the back of the leading group before he met Verifying face to face in the latter portion of the stretch run.

In this race, Verifying meets Raise Cain again at a shorter distance, and the change in distance might help Raise Cain turn the tables on his Indiana Derby rival.

Last year, Raise Cain broke his maiden impressively by 5 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong Keeneland maiden race. Earlier this year, Raise Cain won the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) by 7 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct. His best efforts happen whenever he competes from seven furlongs to a mile and one-sixteenth. 

Given the shorter distance and his nose loss to Verifying at Horseshoe Indianapolis, it makes more sense to trust Raise Cain on top higher odds.

For the suggested trifecta wheel, Raise Cain is the key, while Verifying works better in the underneath slots. To offset Verifying’s low odds, tossing in the two longest shots alongside Verifying may help, especially with Confidence Game possibly needing a race off the layoff.

Post Time carries an undefeated record with three wins at Laurel Park last year and a recent win last month in an optional claimer for older horses at Pimlico. His races are worth watching, as he owns an amazing turn of foot in the stretch and he has won his races without any effort.  

Loyal Company exits a third-place finish in the Harrods Creek Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he did suffer from a wide trip on the turn. Two starts ago, Loyal Company also ran third in the Ellis Park Derby while losing by only 3/4 length to Tumbarumba, who ran third in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) in his next start.

One of those two longshots could finish second or third and liven up the trifecta. But in terms of the win position, Raise Cain is the best bet. 

Win: 4 (at 3-1 orlonger)

Trifecta wheel: 4 over 1,3,6 over 1,3,6

Keeneland race 9: Raven Run Stakes (G2)

Alva Starr's recent form reveals an impressive two-race stretch where she won the Dashing Beauty Stakes at Delaware by 6 3/4 lengths in July and more importantly the Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga by 8 3/4 lengths early last month. She has been improving rapidly in figures. 

However, those wins came at six furlongs and she lacks any experience at seven furlongs. Furthermore, the public seems liable to bet this speedy filly down to far lower odds than the generous 2-1 morning line.

Another option is Lady Radler, who has won twice in two dirt starts this year.

After failing to hit the board in a turf sprint to start off the campaign, Lady Radler led all the way in the Goldfinch Stakes at Prairie Meadows.

Three starts after the Goldfinch win, Lady Radler made use of stalking tactics in the seven-furlong Dogwood Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs last month, before taking over on the turn and winning by 2 3/4 lengths over the closing Metaphysical in second and Yesternight in third.

Before running third in the Dogwood, Yesternight was second in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes won by Foggy Night at Parx Racing. Yesternight also won an allowance race at Monmouth Park back in July by 8 1/2 lengths. Lady Radler did not beat the strongest field when she won the Dogwood, but those fillies behind her were not total pushovers either. 

If Lady Radler starts at 9/2 or longer, she is worthy of a win bet. But that is a strict line. Alva Starr might end up handling the distance with no problem.

The safer option is to use both fillies in multi-race wagers and move on.

Win: 8 (at 9/2 or longer)