Saturday plays: This price horse can improve at Alabama distance

Given her strong record, Wet Paint makes it hard to consider another filly in the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday. But the extra distance in this 10-furlong race leaves a slight opening for another runner to outlast the expected favorite and pick up an important win.

Down below is a look at the Alabama, including the final win bet on a filly who could upset the favorite. First, here is short analysis for the Grade 2, $200,000 Lake Placid Stakes and the win bet for that race.

Saratoga Race 7: Lake Placid Stakes

Prerequisite is listed at 9/2 on the morning line and those odds seem almost too good to stay true considering the talent she has shown in her few races.  

In Prerequisite’s most recent effort, she set a slow pace in the Belmont Oaks Invitational before losing narrowly to the European invader Aspen Grove, who came out of some classy races overseas. Despite losing, Prerequisite still ran a great race to finish second ahead of all the American-based fillies.

Also, Prerequisite does not need to set a slow pace. Two starts ago, Prerequisite set a fast pace under pressure from Spansive in the Wonder Again Stakes (G2), and she put that opponent away on the far turn and still had more left when Be Your Best came running late from midpack.

Prerequisite won by a neck, but the early pace made the win impressive.

In addition, Prerequisite does not need to set the pace either. Three starts ago, she broke her maiden with stalking tactics when stretching out to nine furlongs.

In this 1 1/16-mile race, Prerequisite faces other speed types in Heavenly Sunday and Gloria’s Princess, who are both talented and could weaken Prerequisite. As shown above though, Prerequisite can sit off the leaders in a stalking position, especially from the outside.

As for Prerequisite’s stablemate Surge Capacity, she won the Lake George Stakes (G3) on this course in her most recent start on a yielding surface and also broke her maiden at Monmouth in fast fashion on the lawn. Now, she must prove herself at the Grade 2 level. In contrast, Prerequisite is dropping from a Grade 1 and already owns a Grade 2 win.

Yet, Surge Capacity is 3-1 on the morning line. If Prerequisite starts at 3-1 or higher, then she is a playable win bet based on her class and ability.

Win: 8 (at 3-1 or higher)

Saratoga Race 9: Alabama Stakes (G1)

Without a doubt, Wet Paint owns the most class in this race after capturing the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at nine furlongs over this surface.

Earlier in the year, Wet Paint rose to the top with wins in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) and Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn. But a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks put a halt to her momentum. Then, Wet Paint lost the Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park against the loose leader Hoosier Philly.

Wet Paint’s CCAO victory not only reaffirmed the filly’s position as a major player in the division, it also gave her an important win in a nine-furlong race.  

With all that said, Wet Paint now needs to stretch out to 10 furlongs and she might start as the heavy favorite by post time despite the strange 2-1 morning line odds.

Taxed might improve enough on the stretchout to beat Wet Paint.

Notice that Taxed’s best effort came at nine furlongs in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) when she defeated Hoosier Philly in second. Hoosier Philly held the advantage after a comfortable lead and still offered no answer when Taxed moved forward in the stretch run.

In her most recent start, Taxed ran a closing second to Defining Purpose in the Indiana Oaks (G3) as the 4/5 favorite. To Taxed's credit though, she had to close against a crawling pace though while coming all the way from seventh and last, while Defining Purpose sat only about one length off the lead through early fractions of 24.12 and 49.06 seconds.  

Taxed also ran second to Wet Paint in the Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn earlier in the year on the Oaks trail. Note how the Fantasy, Martha Washington and Indiana Oaks were all 1 1/16-mile races, and now she gets 10 furlongs.

In longer multi-race wagers, both Wet Paint and Taxed deserve a spot on the ticket. But for a win play, Taxed is playable at 5-1 or higher.

Use in multi-race wagers: 2,9

Win: 9 (at 5-1 or higher)