Saturday plays: Smile Happy is the key in Stephen Foster

Smile Happy leads a group of eight horses in the Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster at Ellis Park on Saturday. The race feels like a full circle of sorts, as Smile Happy once held a lot of promise as a 2-year-old colt after two wins to start his career. Now, the excitement around him is back.  

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Earlier on the card are the $225,000 Kelly’s Landing and the Grade 2, $400,000 Fleur De Lis, and both races appear playable with spot win plays. As for the Stephen Foster, a simple exacta wheel looks like an appropriate bet.

Here is the short analysis for each race and final bets.

Ellis Park Race 6: Kelly’s Landing Stakes

Marsalis lacks stakes experience and does not appear competitive on speed figures, but there are some key notes to point out about his presence.

For one, the race is void of a true pacesetter, and Marsalis can either set the pace or press the leader if another horse decides to get brave. With the other possible speed horses drawn inside, Marsalis holds an advantage on the outside and can adjust his strategy depending on how the break plays.  

Even though Marsalis comes off a 220-day layoff, trainer Steve Asmussen chose to start this 4-year-old colt in this stakes race, rather than wait for a softer spot. Before going on the shelf, Marsalis was in sharp form after capturing an allowance at Keeneland and winning an optional claimer at Churchill Downs.

Joel Rosario decides to reunite with Marsalis. Last year, Rosario was the pilot for Marsalis’ first two career starts during the Fair Grounds meet.

While Marsalis lacks the right figures, he might step forward in this race as an older colt now and post a mild upset if the pace runs soft enough.

Win/place: 5 (at 5-1 or higher)

Ellis Park Race 8: Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2)

The favorite A Mo Reay looks unappealing in the role without any previous experience at nine furlongs. She also exits a loss in the La Troienne Stakes (G1), where she closed for fourth without posing a threat to the leaders.

One interesting alterative is Bellamore, who ran a strong closing second to Played Hard in the Falls City (G3) last November at Churchill Downs.

Forget about Bellamore's turf and synthetic starts since the Falls City. The runner-up finish to Adare Manor in the Santa Maria (G2) is also forgivable because Adare Manor set the pace while loose on an uncontested lead, and runners trained by Bob Baffert usually finish strong if left alone up front.

If Bellamore can repeat or improve upon the Falls City effort, she can win. Some rain might not bother her either, as turf runners tend to handle slop.

Win/place: 1 (at 7/2 or higher)

Ellis Park Race 10: Stephen Foster Stakes (G1)

If he can win this Grade 1 race, Smile Happy might find himself as one of the top dirt routers. Here is a short rundown of his recent starts.

Smile Happy began his new campaign with a great win at Oaklawn Park on March 16 in a nine-furlong optional claiming race. In that win off the bench, Smile Happy overcome a slow pace scenario from a stalking position and caught Speed Bias up front, before pulling away a bit to win by 1 1/4 lengths.  

His third-place finish in the Oaklawn Mile (G3) afterwards is fine too, as Smile Happy ran into some traffic problems on the far turn. Smile Happy did come with a belated move near the end when finally running in the clear.  

More recently, Smile Happy won the Alysheba (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard with surprising pressing tactics. After eventually securing the lead from West Will Power, Smile Happy kept that opponent at bay in the stretch run and won by two lengths over Art Collector, who came late for second, and West Will Power back in third.

Remember that Art Collector won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational earlier this year, and that West Will Power ran second in the Clark (G1) last November. Smile Happy beat two runners capable of competing in Grade 1s.

Smile Happy can press the pace again if it runs slow, or he can settle back into a stalker position. Either way, he has a great chance to take this race.

Now to discuss the runner-up position. Proxy will come with his usual closing rush and might run well enough for second. In his most recent start, he won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) after looking beaten on the far turn.

Also think about using West Will Power underneath Smile Happy. The son of Bernardini might settle into a comfortable pressing trip if Stilleto Boy or Speed Bias go for the lead.

Overall though, this looks like Smile Happy’s time to shine.

Win: 5 (at 8/5 or higher)

Exacta: 5 over 1,6