Saturday plays: 3 Keeneland stakes with a Bowman Mill single

Keeneland offers three stakes races on closing day Saturday, including the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette Stakes, as well as the $150,000 Bowman Mill and $150,000 Bryan Station Stakes. The latter two races are for 3-year-olds.

Here are some thoughts on the three Oct. 30 Keeneland stakes races.

Keeneland Race 7: Bowman Mill Stakes

Even though My Prankster lost by 13 3/4 lengths in the Champagne Stakes (G1), he still deserves the most respect because his 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure still tops any other figure from the other horses entered.

Plus, My Prankster also shows an impressive 111 on TimeformUS from his Aug. 21 maiden win at Saratoga in a six-and-a-half furlong sprint. My Prankster won that maiden race by 10 lengths in a dominating effort.

My Prankster cuts back from one mile to six furlongs in this spot and figures to revert back to his maiden performance or better against a moderate field.

It is not a bad idea to single My Prankster.

Chattalot and Nakatomi are both capable of running second off their solid 1-2 finish in the Oct. 1 optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. But neither of them offer great value in an exacta or trifecta with My Prankster.  

A better strategy is to bet My Prankster to win or go horizontal with him singled in a multi-race wager, or play both bets with the win bet as a "saver." 

Top selection: No. 7 My Prankster (5/2)

Bets

Win: 7

Pick 3: 7 / 3,6,9,10,11 / 1,2,5,6

Keeneland Race 8: Bryan Station Stakes

California Chrome has been picking up momentum as a sire. In this race, his son Charles Chrome offers attractive 10-1 odds on the morning line.

If nothing else, Charles Chrome displays a consistent record on turf with a 4-1-2-1 record, including a fading third in the one-mile James W. Murphy Stakes at Pimlico. While some handicappers might use that race as evidence Charles Chrome cannot handle one mile, there are reasons to believe this one-mile attempt might result in a different outcome.

In the James W. Murphy, Charles Chrome came off a 187-day layoff. This time, he shows a prep race in a Kentucky Downs optional claimer, where he closed for second by 3 ½ lengths to an impressive winner in Big Agenda.

Charles Chrome took on older horses in that return race, and now he switches back to a mild group of 3-year-old runners with Julien Leparoux aboard. He could provide another winner for California Chrome on turf.

Also consider Camp Hope, who won a local turf allowance race on Oct. 8 against older horses by a dominating 5 ¼ lengths after contesting the pace. With the cutback to one mile, he might revert to a stalking style.

A third option is Scarlett Sky, who owns a decent shot as well given he won the Transylvania Stakes (G3) on this course in April before a disappointing run in the American Turf Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. 

If bettors can handle the budget, Yes This Time and Like the King are the last two options to think about. In early July, these horses ran 1-2 in the Kent Stakes (G3) at Delaware. In September, Like the King was also third by two lengths in the Saranac Stakes (G3) behind Public Sector and Never Surprised. To add credibility to the Saranac, Public Sector and Never Surprised ran 1-2 again in the Hill Prince Stakes (G2) at Belmont.

Top selection: No. 3 Charles Chrome (10-1)

Contenders (in order of preference): No. 11 Camp Hope (3-1), No. 9 Scarlett Sky (10-1), No. 6 Like the King (4-1), No. 10 Yes This Time (3-1)

Keeneland Race 9: Fayette Stakes (G2)

King Fury rebounded well from his fifth in the Travers Stakes (G1) to dominate the Bourbon Trail Stakes at Churchill Downs by an eye-opening 13 lengths with a career-high 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Perhaps the speed bias on the Travers card negatively affected him. Off the Bourbon Trail effort and his past success at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes (G3), King Fury is the top choice. His 9/2 morning line odds also look attractive.

King Fury does need to overcome the lack of pace, but notice his initial two TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Bourbon Trail were both 125 and 125, numbers which should put him somewhere in the front of midpack.

Otherwise, it makes sense to pay attention to the speed. On paper, Sleepy Eyes Todd and Independence Hall are the two main speed horses.

Sleepy Eyes Todd exits a second-place finish in the Charles Town Classic (G2). He only lost by 1 ½ lengths to Art Collector after setting the pace, but he also arguably rode a rail bias to help his effort on the bullring track.

Regardless, Sleepy Eyes Todd is capable of wiring the field if the connections decide to utilize his speed. If the jockey grabs early, then he is toast.

Independence Hall ran second by four lengths to Knicks Go in his recent start in the Lukas Classic (G3) at Churchill Downs. Although nine furlongs is possibly stretching his limits, he did post a 125 on TimeformUS for the runner-up finish to Knicks Go, as well as a 129 for his third to Knicks Go in the Pegasus World Cup back in January.

For a longshot, consider Manhattan Up. After his win in the Los Alamitos Special last month, he was moved to trainer Robertino Diodoro under a new owner in Flying P Stable. Maybe Diodoro can move this runner forward.

Top selection: No. 6 King Fury (9/2)

Contenders: No. 1 Sleepy Eyes Todd (3-1), No. 5 Independence Hall (5/2)

Live longshot: No. 2 Manhattan Up (12-1)