Saturday plays: Santa Anita selections, plus the Holy Bull

While multi-race wagers such as the Pick 4 and Pick 5 can result in high payoffs, choosing specific races to play can also result in more focused bets.

Below is a recap with win and exacta plays for the Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday. Afterwards, the attention turns to Santa Anita with plays for the Grade 3, $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes, Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes and Grade 2, $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes.

Gulfstream Race 11: Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

Simplification won the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes by four lengths in his most recent start after setting a moderate pace and drawing clear. With his 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win, his top figure is within two points of Giant Game’s 108 earned when finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In this spot, Simplification is the likely pacesetter once again. His main pace opponent is White Abarrio, who only looks like a mild pace threat, if at all.

Two horses are interesting for the second slot.

As stated above, Giant Game finished third in the Juvenile. He also mounted a four-wide move on the far turn, which explains why he stalled late.

In his October maiden win at Keeneland, Giant Game won by three lengths over Call Me Midnight, the winner of the recent Lecomte Stakes (G3).

Galt broke his maiden by three lengths on this course in December. Although the figure was slow, he separated from the field nicely towards the wire and could move forward now as a 3-year-old. The full sibling to Songbird also figures to benefit from the rail post.

Top selection: No. 4 Simplification (4-1)

Underneath: No. 1 Galt (15-1), No. 9 Giant Game (7/2)

Bets

Win: 4

Exacta: 4 / 9

Exacta: 4 / 1 (for less money)

Santa Anita Race 1: Thunder Road Stakes (G3)

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Subconscious is supposed to secure the lead through a slow pace. The only horse near him in the graphic is the longshot Sniper Kitten, who is more of a stalker type than presser.

Last year, Subconscious put together a nice string of three straight wins including the local Twilight Derby (G2) by 1 ¼ lengths in late October. Unfortunately, his season ended with a fifth in the Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar. 

There is no reason why Subconscious cannot start a new streak.

Two horses offer decent value for the second slot.  

The first one is Delaware, who closed for a fourth-place finish in the local Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2) on Jan. 1. Delaware competed in one mile or longer races back east, which means he might benefit from the return to one mile.

Also consider Hurricane Cloud, who makes his North America debut for trainer John Sadler after 11 starts in France. He is a bit of a wild card, but his European form looks consistent enough and Umberto Rispoli rides.

Top selection: No. 1 Subconscious (8/5)

Underneath: No. 4 Delaware (6-1), No. 6 Hurricane Cloud (5-1) 

Exacta wheel: 1 / 4,6

Santa Anita Race 6: Santa Monica Stakes (G2)

Although Ce Ce won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar last November, there are reasons not to trust her here.

Ce Ce enters this race off a three-month break and trainer Michael McCarthy has no reason to crank her up to 100 percent until later on.

Consider the Bob Baffert-trained Merneith instead.

Merneith captured the Santa Monica last year before hitting the shelf for almost a year. If Merneith suffered from a physical problem, that is in the past after returning last month in the Kalookan Queen Stakes and finishing second by only 1 ¾ lengths to the Filly & Mare Sprint runner-up Edgeway.  

If Merneith can duplicate the 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for winning the Santa Monica last year, or even improve on it, she can win this race again.

Top selection: No. 3 Merneith (7/2)

Bets

Win: 3 (at 3-1 or higher)

Santa Anita Race 8: San Pasqual Stakes (G2)

Law Professor has been performing like a different horse in his last two starts. First, watch the Nov. 27 optional claiming race at Del Mar over turf.

Even though he went wide on both turns, Law Professor still won easily enough by half a length with mostly a handride down the stretch.

Of course, Law Professor’s connections wanted to try the Santa Anita Mathis Mile Stakes (G2) on turf after his successful run in the optional claimer. The Mathis Mile was taken off the turf though and run over dirt.

The surface switch allowed Law Professor to show his improved form on dirt too. After chasing the pacesetter Beyond Brilliant, Law Professor moved in on the far turn and went to battle Beyond Brilliant in the stretch. Law Professor edged clear his rival past midstretch to prevail by half a length.

Law Professor also earned a lofty 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Mathis Mile on dirt, which is the higher TimeformUS figure in the field.

Who fits in second?

Eight Rings figures to set the pace again for Baffert. In his most recent start, he set the pace in the San Antonio with Hot Rod Charlie on his tail before getting tired and finishing third. He was also third in the Native Diver Stakes after taking up the tracking position in second early on.

Without Hot Rod Charlie hounding him, Eight Rings might receive a more comfortable trip. But, the nine-furlong distance is a bit long for him. It is not hard to imagine Law Professor gradually mowing down Eight Rings late.

The favorite Express Train can finish second too. In fact, he mowed down Hot Rod Charlie and Eight Rings to win the San Antonio Stakes. But the pace scenario is against him this time and he lacks value.

Top selection: No. 6 Law Professor (5/2)

Underneath: No. 4 Eight Rings (3-1)

Bets

Win: 6

Exacta: 6 / 4