Saturday Plays: Tampa Bay Derby plus 3 other stakes

Hopefuls for the Kentucky Derby in May meet in Florida on Saturday as Tampa Bay Downs hosts a full field of 12 entries for the Grade 2, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. The one and one-sixteenth mile dirt race offers 50 Derby points to the winner and features the consistent Classic Causeway.

                     Click here for Tampa Bay Entries, Results.

Tampa Bay also runs three other graded stakes races on the undercard, including two graded races on turf. The selections and bets below cover all four graded stakes races and were made with expected rain in mind.

Tampa Bay Race 7: Hillsborough Stakes (G2)

No. 5 Bleecker Street enters this race undefeated for trainer Chad Brown, with her latest win coming in the local Endeavour Stakes (G3) by 1 1/2 lengths.

If Bleecker Street misfires, stablemate No. 6 Rocky Sky might make amends after a disappointing eighth-place finish in the Saratoga Oaks (G3) last summer. Notice she won a stakes race over a yielding course in Ireland.

No. 7 Runaway Rumor shows good stakes efforts from last season as the runner-up in the Sands Point Stakes (G2) and Lake Placid Stakes (G2). Now that she is a seasoned 4-year-old filly, she could break through with a graded stakes win.

Pick 3 (if main track is wet): 5,6,7 / 1 / 3,6,9

Pick 3 (if main track is dry): 5,6,7 / 1,8 / 3,6,9

Tampa Bay Race 8: Challenger Stakes (G3)

The choice of No.1 Wolfie’s Dynaghost as a single depends on the weather, as his two main track wins came came on wet dirt, with one of them on slop.  

Wolfie’s Dynaghost ran the best race of his career over slop last summer when he won an optional claiming race at Belmont after setting a quick pace. He won by two lengths with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure.  

If the dirt ends up wet and Paco Lopez sends him to the lead from the rail, Wolfie’s Dynaghost can pop a big race and leave this field behind. In the case of a fast track, include both Wolfie’s Dynaghost and Scalding.

No. 8 Scalding has been developing nicely for trainer Shug McGaughey as a lightly-raced 4-year-old colt. After two losses to start his career last year, Scalding broke his maiden over slop at Gulfstream in early January and then won a local optional claiming race last month by 5 1/4 lengths.

Both Wolfie’s Dynaghost and Scalding possess speed, although Wolfie’s Dynaghost looks more probable to gun early given his rail post position.

Win: 1 (at 9-2 or higher on wet dirt)

Tampa Bay Race 9: Florida Oaks (G3)

No. 3 Dolce Zel won a stakes race over a good course at Longchamp in France before transferring to trainer Chad Brown on this soil. In Europe, a good course is likely the equivalent of what Americans label a yielding turf course.

Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount on Dolce Zel for her North American debut, and the Brown/Ortiz Jr. combination is labeled as “hot” by TimeformUS.

If Dolce Zel does not fire, stablemate No. 6 Spicer can probably get the job done off the bench. Spicer broke her maiden at Aqueduct by an impressive 3 1/4 lengths last November and may return a stronger filly.

No. 9 Ambitieuse also deserves respect after finishing a closing second in the Sweetest Chant Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. She only lost by three quarters of a length to Opalina, who ran second in the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3) last week.

Tampa Bay Race 11: Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

No. 9 Shipsational brings a perfect 2-for-2 record on wet dirt into this race. In his career debut on slop, he won by a dominating 6 3/4 lengths last summer at Saratoga in a 5 1/2 furlong maiden sprint.

Shipsational's other sloppy track win happened in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont last October. He secured control of the lead and finished well enough in the stretch to hold off the Todd Pletcher-trained Overstep by half a length.

In his return, Shipsational broke a step slow in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and found himself in traffic before the first turn. From there, he made his way forward towards the second turn and tipped out at the top of the stretch in order to get a clear shot at Classic Causeway. But at that point, Classic Causeway was too far ahead of the field.

If Shipsational fails to break sharp though or misfires for any other reason, then Classic Causeway is the obvious choice to wire the field.

No. 4 Classic Causeway did run as a stalker to finish second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November, but he is better as a pacesetter.

If playing a trifecta, think about throwing in some longshots for the third slot, such as Grantham, Strike Hard and Golden Glider. Grantham ran fourth in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, and that is notable because the runner-up Un Ojo went on to upset the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn. As for Strike Hard and Golden Glider, they closed for fourth and fifth in the Sam F. Davis and might pick off enough horses to complete the trifecta in this spot.

Both Shipsational and Classic Causeway are usable in multi-race wagers. If keying Shipsational in a vertical wager, watch his odds first before making a decision. He might work better as just a win bet if the public really ignores him in favor of Classic Causeway and Major General. 

Win: 9 (at 7/2 or higher)

Trifecta key: 9 / 4 / 1,6,7