Saturday Plays: Personal Ensign, Travers, Pat O'Brien picks

As Saratoga marches towards the end of its meet, it hosts the highly anticipated Travers Day card on Saturday. The highlight of the day is the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds running the classic 1-¼ mile distance, featuring the star and heavy favorite Essential Quality.

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Also on the card is the star-packed $600,000 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at nine furlongs for older fillies and mares. The race includes Letruska and Swiss Skydiver, and thanks to Letruska’s razor-sharp form, Swiss Skydiver is not favored.  

Here are final selections for those two graded stakes races, and one more race. As an added bonus, the $200,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) at Del Mar is covered as well.  

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Saratoga Race 10: $600,000 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1)

Letruska deserves her role as the favorite after winning the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1), Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) and Fleur de Lis (G2) in her last three starts. The transformation of this mare from a speedball last year to a more professional and refined runner now has been a pleasure to watch.

With that said, this race is not a slam dunk, especially with other speed entered.

As Time Goes By’s career best effort came at nine furlongs in the Santa Margarita Stakes (G2) in April. She won by an easy 9¼ lengths after setting the early pace.

If As Time Goes By secures the lead under Mike Smith, she is liable to take them all the way assuming Letruska does not hook up in a suicidal speed duel with her. Remember that trainer Bob Baffert wins most of his big races by securing the front end, and in many of those situations other speed horses back down.  

Do not forget about Swiss Skydiver either. While Swiss Skydiver has yet to match her excellent performance in the Preakness Stakes last October, a return to her winning Beholder Mile (G1) effort in March puts Swiss Skydiver in the mix to win.

Top selection: #2 As Time Goes By (6-1)

Contenders: #4 Swiss Skydiver (7/2), #6 Letruska (6/5)

Saratoga Race 12: $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1)

Dynamic One looks like a good value play for bettors who do not want to eat short odds on the expected favorite Essential Quality.

In his most recent start, Dynamic One won the Curlin Stakes at nine furlongs earlier in the meet in a faster time than favored Essential Quality won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) the following day. While comparing raw times from different days is not a good practice, it is notable that Dynamic One ran his time over a good track, while Essential Quality won over a fast track.

Earlier in the year, Dynamic One was second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) before an 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Cross out the Derby effort. For many horses, the Derby acts as an outlier as horses develop.

Essential Quality is a must-use in horizontal wagers off his wide-trip win in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). He also won the Belmont Stakes two starts ago and finished a good fourth in the Kentucky Derby, although he could not pass Medina Spirit. Before the Derby, he won the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on the trail.

No one denies Essential Quality has talent and notable accomplishments. However, the gap between him and other contenders in this field is not that large. Given his low price, it makes sense to at least use other options in multi-race wagers along with Essential Quality and hope to catch a horse with better value who hits a new level this week. After all, these are young, developing 3-year-old horses.

Besides Dynamic One, maybe King Fury is the one to take the next step.

King Fury made his return in the Lexington Stakes (G2) in April and won by 2¾ lengths over the slop. He then matched the Lexington effort in the Ohio Derby with a close second, only losing by half a length to the improving Masqueparade at Thistledown.

After those two promising efforts, King Fury then ran in the Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) on turf and threw a clunker with a 10th-place finish. Cross out the turf race.

If King Fury can build on his two dirt efforts this year, he can win the Travers.

Top selection: #4 Dynamic One (6-1)

Contender: #2 Essential Quality (4/5)

Best value: #7 King Fury (15-1)

Del Mar Race 10: $200,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2)

Even though Flagstaff and C Z Rocket are present in this race, it feels time to pass the torch and find the next leaders for the California sprint division.

Ginobili deserves a long look after winning a local optional claiming race on July 17 by 9¾ lengths and posting an incredible 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Where did that effort come from? Earlier in his career, he had displayed talent by running a close second to Nadal in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), but he had never backed it the effort until now.

Since the July 17 romp, Ginobili has fired a four-furlong bullet in 46.40 at San Luis Rey Training Center on Aug. 21. Perhaps this is the new version of Ginobili.

In case the pace is fast, Mo Mosa also must be considered.

Two starts ago, Mo Mosa won the Sexton Mile (G3) by 3½ lengths over C Z Rocket on the sloppy track. But, he is still a trustworthy horse on fast dirt as well. Three starts ago, Mo Mosa won the Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gus Fonner Stakes by 1½ lengths on fast dirt, with the fourth-place horse in the Pegasus World Cup, Sleepy Eyes Todd, finishing third.

In Mo Mosa’s most recent start, he made a bid in the San Diego Handicap (G2) before fading to fourth by four lengths. That effort came against a tough field, with the runner-up Tripoli returning to win the Pacific Classic.

On the cutback to seven furlongs against weaker foes, expect a performance from Mo Mosa more akin to the Sexton Mile and Fonner Park wins earlier in the year.

Howbeit owns a chance as well after winning his last two starts.

At Santa Anita on July 19, Howbeit took an optional claiming race by 3 ½ lengths with a career-high 112 on TimeformUS. Then, he had another career-high figure in a local July 25 optional claiming race, where he won by 4½ lengths with a 114.

As a 4-year-old colt, maybe Howbeit is developing at the right time.

Use C Z Rocket defensively in multi-race wagers, as he may take advantage of the pace with his usual closing move. Otherwise, the right play is probably to box Ginobili, Mo Mosa and Howbeit, as long as their odds remain relatively high.

Top selection: #1 Ginobili (6-1)

Value options: #2 Howbeit (6-1), #4 Mo Mosa (10-1)

Contender: #9 C Z Rocket (5/2)