Saturday plays: Lone Rock stablemate can upset the Tinsel

Stakes action continues at Oaklawn Park on Saturday with the featured $200,000 Tinsel Stakes, a nine-furlong dirt route open to 3-year-olds and older. The 8/5 morning line favorite is Lone Rock, who is more known for his recent accomplishments in marathon races under trainer Robertino Diodoro.  

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The cutback might not pose a problem, but Lone Rock could find tough competition in a hot stablemate that carries a three-race win streak. Here are two picks below for the Tinsel, as well as the surrounding pick 4 races.

Oaklawn Race 7: 2YOF Maiden

Out of the first-time starters, Hot and Sultry is the most intriguing option based on her excellent dam line that traces back to Xtra Heat. For those who do not remember, Xtra Heat ran second in the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Another first-timer who can win is Peace Peddler, who is sired by Gun Runner. Peace Peddler is also a daughter of Embur’s Song. Embur’s Song made $616k in her successful career while winning her first two starts.

Uninhibited earns space in this post too because trainer Robertino Diodoro wins at a 25 percent clip with first time starters over the past year.

There are two experienced runners to consider as well.

Icy Stare Down ran third in her Nov. 13 career debut at Churchill Downs. Even though she faded a bit towards the end, she might move forward.

Runaway Wife also ran third in her career debut on Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs. Like Icy Stare Down, Runaway Wife also lost ground in the stretch. The cutback from seven to six furlongs might help Runaway Wife last longer.

Top selection: No. 2 Hot and Sultry (6-1)

Contenders: No. 4 Runaway Wife (5-1), No. 6 Icy Stare Down (3-1), No. 8 Peace Peddler (4-1)

Live longshot: No. 10 Uninhibited (15-1)

Bet

Pick 4: 2,4,6,8,10 / 1,2,5,7 / 2,6 / 4,5,12

$60 in all

Oaklawn Park Race 8: Allowance

TimeformUS labels this race in light blue, which means it favors speed.

County Final, Sir Alfred James and Mucho all own good speed. Any one of these three speed runners could secure the lead or contest the pace. All three of them also own enough ability to win this allowance race.

While a duel is the first thought that might come to mind when three speed horses exist, none of them own a blazing type of speed that causes a pace collapse. That is the reason why TimeformUS still thinks this race lacks pace, because the pace figures are moderate for them.

For a longshot, think about Royal Daaher. His allowance win over this course on April 1 is fast enough to win here, if he can duplicate it. 

Top selection: No. 2 Sir Alfred James (9/2)

Contenders: No. 1 County Final (5-1), No. 7 Mucho (3-1)

Live longshot: No. 5 Royal Daaher (12-1)

Oaklawn Park Race 9: Tinsel Stakes

Lone Rock brings sharp form into this race after winning the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. As an established marathon runner, the question is whether he can handle the cutback to nine furlongs.

Last year, Lone Rock won a $40k claiming race at Keeneland under Diodoro at the mile and one-sixteenth distance, as well as a one-mile $40k claiming race at Churchill Downs under trainer Bill Mott to close out his 2020 season.

After getting claimed again from the Mott barn, Lone Rock ran for Diodoro back on February 27 and won a local optional claiming race at the one mile and one-sixteenth distance again. Given those earlier wins at shorter distances before his leap onto the national scene, he is supposed to handle nine furlongs.

Lone Rock’s stablemate Thomas Shelby is an intriguing second option at a value price. He not only carries a three-race win streak into this race including a win over Warrior’s Charge on Oct. 24 at Keeneland in an optional claimer, but he also shows a 2 for 2 record at nine furlongs.

His more recent nine-furlong win came at Saratoga on Sept. 5, where he won an optional claiming race by four lengths after setting the pace.

The great part about Thomas Shelby’s two nine-furlong wins is that he increased his margin from the top of the stretch to the wire both times.

Note: Thomas Shelby is double-entered in a starter optional claimer on Sunday. If he scratches, Warrior's Charge might be left uncontested. 

Top selection: No. 2 Lone Rock (8/5)

Best value: No. 6 Thomas Shelby (8-1)

Oaklawn Race 10: 2YO Maiden

Quick to Blame ran an even third in his career debut on Nov. 13 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Brad Cox does not crank up his first-time starters, which makes this Blame colt a major threat to move forward.

Chileno flashed improved speed by contesting the pace in his runner-up effort on Nov. 19 at Churchill Downs. Note the slight trouble he encountered on the backside when the loose horse forced Chileno to take up slightly.

Although Chileno made his fourth start in that race, he could still improve. It looks like the switch to a two-turn route gave him a push forward. From Post 12, he can secure an advantageous spot as the outside speed assuming he can clear the field before the first turn.

Call Me Jamal also deserves a look after showing speed and fading slightly to fourth in his first two races, both at Churchill Downs at sprint distances. Given his sire Malibu Moon and damsire Thunder Gulch, the switch to a two-turn route might help Call Me Jamal move forward too.

Top selection: No. 5 Quick to Blame (3-1)

Contender: No. 12 Chileno (7/2)

Best value: No. 4 Call Me Jamal (8-1)