Saturday Plays: Late Pick 4 with Fair Grounds Oaks, La. Derby

Another strong undercard falls underneath a major Kentucky Derby points race on Saturday, when Fair Grounds hosts the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby for 3-year-olds at the challenging distance of one and three-sixteenth miles.

                  Click here for Fair Grounds Entries, Results.

Before playing the late Pick 4 or 5, consider whether the effort is worth it as the dirt races may end chalky. Regardless, here are some thoughts on the late pick 4 and two undercard maiden races for 3-year-olds.

Fair Grounds Race 1: 3-year-old fillies Maiden

Trainer Tom Amoss brings a strong hand into this race with two interesting first-time starters in Violent Outburst and Exactitude.

Violent Outburst is a daughter of Violence out of the Tapit mare Scratch N Claw. Scratch N Claw is a half-sister to In Lingerie, who won her career debut in 2012 and went on to capture the Bourbonette Oaks (G3), Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and the Spinster Stakes (G1).

As for Exactitude, she shows two recent bullets, including one on March 3 at Delta Downs where she went four furlongs in 48.40. On the same morning and distance at Delta Downs, Violent Outburst went four furlongs in 50.4 seconds.

Watch to see if the public bets down either filly. With first-time starters, seeing the odds start low in live wagering signals the runner is live.

Win: 4 (only at 5/2 to 4-1)

Win: 6 (only at 5/2 to 4-1)

Fair Grounds Race 7: 3-year-old Maiden

Can’t Hush This was a blog selection last time and could only manage an even fourth-place finish in his local career debut on Feb. 19.

The son of Not This Time gets one more chance. This time he enters with two local bullets on March 9 and 18. Plus, James Graham hops aboard for Tom Amoss for the second start. According to TimeformUS, the Graham and Amoss combination has hit at 19 percent over the past year.

If Can’t Hush This fails again, then it is time to give up on him as a bettor.

Win: 12 (at 9-2 or higher)

Fair Grounds Race 9: New Orleans Classic (G2)

Promise Keeper did not start well in the Razorback Handicap (G3), but he made a nice closing move for fourth afterwards. Notice the fifth-place finisher Rated R Superstar went on to capture the Essex Handicap (G3).

Olympiad might secure the early lead and prove too far ahead to catch. He recently won the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) and seems to excel with added distance.

Proxy made a successful local return on Feb. 25 in a local optional claiming race. He won by 3 3/4 lengths with a nice closing move after lagging seventh lengths behind in the early stages.

Pick 4: 1,2,5 / 2,3,4,5,8,9 / 1,3 / 6

Fair Grounds Race 10: Muniz Memorial Classic (G2)

Turf wizard trainer Chad Brown might capture this race with either Sacred Life or Devamani, but neither aging runner looks invincible.

Unfortunately, this is a spread race.

Cavalry Charge ran almost too good to believe in the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). He put away the other speed horses Two Emmys and Forty Under, before holding off three different closers in Adhamo, Halo Again and Santin.  

Two Emmys, Forty Under and Santin join Cavalry Charge again. Consider adding them alongside Sacred Life and Devamani in multi-race wagers

Fair Grounds Race 11: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

Echo Zulu shows a sparking 2-year-old filly record with wins in the Spinaway Stakes (G1), Frizette Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. If this filly carries her brilliance onto her 3-year-old campaign, she will likely win.  

Sometimes 2-year-old stars do not take the next step though. In many cases, the better horses in the crop were only taking more time to develop.

Favor is one to consider, at a price. In January at Gulfstream, Favor broke her maiden by 3 3/4 lengths while drifting out in the stretch. She then took a step forward in a Feb. 6 Gulfstream optional claimer by sitting patiently early and taking over the lead in a professional manner to win by 4 1/4 lengths.  

Both of those wins came at one mile. Given her strong finishes in the maiden win and optional claimer, 1 1/16 miles should not pose a problem.

Why would trainer Todd Pletcher send Favor to Fair Grounds to tackle Echo Zulu unless he thought highly of Favor? He must see something.

At her morning line odds of 8-1, Favor is an attractive win bet. Bettors might want to also consider playing against bridgejumpers in the show pool.

Win: 3 (at 8-1 or higher)

Show: 3 (if Echo Zulu has more than $200k to show on her)

Fair Grounds Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2)

Given his natural speed and proven ability, Epicenter looks near impossible to beat in his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby.  

Epicenter won the Gun Runner Stakes in December by 6 1/2 lengths, before finishing second by a head in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) to Call Me Midnight, and then rebounding with a win in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) by 2 3/4 lengths. The Lecomte loss is forgivable because Epicenter took pressure from a pesky Surfer Dude in the first quarter and set a fast pace overall.

In this spot, there is no other horse with Epicenter’s kind of speed. Even if another horse is sent, he is capable of sitting off another pacesetter too.

Trifecta players might want to consider Zozos, Call Me Midnight, Curly Tail and Rattle N Roll for underneath spots. Curly Tail will greatly help the payoff if he can sneak his way into the second or third spot. His trainer Dallas Stewart is no stranger to surprising the betting public with a longshot closer.

Win: 6 (at even money or higher)

Trifecta wheel: 6 / 2,3,4,9 / 2,3,4,9