Saturday plays: Tips for the late double at Santa Anita and more

With three points races on the Derby trail and many other stakes races, horseplayers can look forward to quality racing on Saturday.

The points races include the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Another highlight at Santa Anita is the historic Grade 1, $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap, which is also known as the Big Cap. 

Here are ideas for the late doubles ending in the Gotham and Big Cap, and a recap of the Fountain of Youth and San Felipe picks.

Aqueduct Race 9: Busher Invitational Stakes (G3)

On paper, Magic Circle is supposed to secure an uncontested lead. She also has proven stakes credentials as the runner-up in the Tempted Stakes at Belmont last fall, third-place finisher in the local Demoiselle Stakes (G2) and the Busanda Stakes winner this year. 

Given Magic Circle’s sire is Kantharos, the cutback from the Demoiselle and Busanda distance of nine furlongs to one-mile in this invitational should help her. Magic Circle's overall breeding looks sprint-oriented.

While the morning line favorite Radio Days has shown the ability to close into a slow pace, Magic Circle will probably build a big enough advantage.

Magic Circle is a single candidate.

Win: #5

Double: 5 / 9

Aqueduct Race 10: Gotham Stakes (G3)

Speed horses such as Fromanothamutha, Dean’s List, Bold Journey and Rockefeller appear likely to contest the lead in the early stages.

Perhaps Morello can sit in the perfect spot right behind the speed. He drew well in Post 9, which will allow him to take an outside stalker role.  

Morello has run as a close-range stalker in his local 4 ¼-length maiden breaker last November and five-length win in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.

Considering how easily Morello won the Jimmy Winkfield over Life Is Great in second, there is clear talent in this young Classic Empire colt. He only needs to stay out of traffic and move when the speed horses become tired.

Morello is the lone selection.

Gulfstream Race 12: Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

Simplification broke poorly last time in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and made a nice recovery to finish second. Two starts ago, Simplification led from gate to wire in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes. If he can break better this time, Simplification can return to his winning form with his speed.

Emmanuel has shown exciting raw talent in his two starts. He broke his maiden locally by 6 ¾ lengths before winning an optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs by 4 ½ lengths in late January in an effortless manner.

For a longshot, consider Howling Time. He won the first two starts of his career, including the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs by 3 ¼ lengths. Forget about the poor effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) afterwards.

Howling Time shows three bullet workouts on his tab for his return race, including a blazing local four-furlong spin in 46.65 on Feb. 19. It was the fastest time out of 103 horses for the same distance that morning.

The two expected favorites Simplification and Emmanuel can win, but Howling Time is not without a decent chance at double-digit odds.

Win/place: #3 Howling Time (at 10-1 or higher)

Santa Anita Race 6: San Felipe Stakes (G2)

On paper, the race sets up for a stalker or closer with Armagnac, Forbidden Kingdom and possibly even Cabo Spirit all set to show speed early on.

The Bob Baffert-trained Doppelganger can sit a few lengths off those three speed horses and take advantage whenever they become tired. He seems like the kind of colt who can appreciate the stretchout to one and one-sixteenth miles, especially since his dam Twice the Lady won mostly routes.

Armagnac is Doppelganger’s stablemate with roughly the same owners, which means it's unlikely he tries to rate with Doppelganger.

Doppelganger is the choice to win, even at short odds. Cabo Spirit might hang around long enough to pick up second at a decent price.

Win: #5 Doppelganger

Exacta: 5 / 7

Santa Anita Race 10: Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1)

Count Again shows great recent form on this course with a win in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3) over Subconscious. Also, turf wizard Flavien Prat takes the mount again after their successful showing in the Thunder Road.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the expected pace is labeled fast.

Last year, Count Again finished a closing third in this race while only losing by half a length to Hit the Road. Two of the fractions were labeled slow by TimeformUS, giving Count Again an excuse to not get up in time. 

As long as Count Again can navigate his way through a 12-horse field as a closer, he should receive pace to pack a winning punch under Prat.

Win: #4 Count Again

Double: 4 / 6

Santa Anita Race 11: Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

Express Train shows an 0 for 3 record at 1 1/4 miles, which is a concern. However, this 5-year-old horse deserves one more shot at the distance.

Last year, Express Train almost had the Big Cap wrapped up, but the closing Idol caught him in the last few strides and Express Train lost by half a length. Regardless, Express Train still ran a respectable 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

In Express Train’s second attempt at this distance, a wide trip affected him in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). He gave a decent effort to finish third behind Country Grammer and Royal Ship.

The sixth in the Pacific Classic (G1) is harder to excuse. Maybe Express Train threw in a clunker, as some horses do for no real reason at times.

Two starts ago, Express Train beat Hot Rod Charlie in the San Antonio Stakes (G2). He also won the recent San Pasqual (G2) by 3 ¼ lengths.

If Express Train hangs late this time, it will become clear he needs to stick to nine furlongs and shorter. For now, he receives the benefit of the doubt as the top pick.