Saturday plays: 2 picks to close Beverly D.-Million double

While the Arlington Million card at Colonial Downs might be missing some of the leaders of the turf divisions for its three graded stakes races on Saturday, the lack of heavy favorites offers interesting betting opportunities.

Down below is a look at the Grade 1, $500,000 Beverly D. Stakes and $1 million Arlington Million at Colonial Downs, as well as a double connecting the two races. Also included is one upset pick for the Grade 1, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga. 

Colonial Downs race 9: Beverly D. Stakes (G1)

Fev Rover exits the best race after finishing third in the Diana Stakes (G1) while only losing by half a length to Whitebeam. The great In Italian ran second, which means Whitebeam put in an excellent effort to win that race.

Two weeks before the Diana, Fev Rover also took the Nassau Stakes (G2) at Woodbine by 4 1/4 lengths over the reigning Queen’s Plate winner Moira.

Although Didia may pose a threat after a closing second in the New York Stakes (G1) where she almost ran down the loose leader Marketsegmentation, Marketsegmentation went on to finish a non-threatening fourth in the Diana and 5 1/4 lengths behind Fev Rover in third.

Based on class, Fev Rover is the single in this double.

Win: 1 (at 7/5 or longer)

Beverly D. – Arlington Million Double: 1 with 6, 9

Colonial Downs race 10: Arlington Million (G1)

Master Piece made a good closing move for second against a slow pace in a July 4 optional claiming race at Belmont. The winner Portfolio Company sat right off the leader through crawling opening fractions of 25.63 and 50.67 seconds and had every right to keep going in the stretch with all that energy saved up early on.

Given the glacial pace scenario, Master Piece deserves credit for picking up second. No other horse was passing horses.

Now, Master Piece makes his second start for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., who conditioned White Abarrio to an impressive win in the Whitney Stakes (G1) last weekend in his second start for him. Perhaps Dutrow knows how to get the most out of Master Piece at this point after spending some time with the ridgling.

The other selection is Adhamo, who ran some clunkers at the end of his season last year by finishing eighth in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) and sixth in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G2) before hitting the shelf.

One plausible excuse for those two bad efforts is that 1 1/2 miles proved too long. Before those two races, Adhamo closed for second in the Manhattan Stakes (G1) and picked up his lone American win in the United Nations Stakes (G1).

If Adhamo returns to that form this week, he will contend.

Saratoga Race 9: Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

Ice Chocolat’s trip in the Kelso (G3) deserves a watch.

At the start, Ice Chocolat is bumped and pinched a few steps afterwards.

The early crowding forces Flavien Prat to take Ice Chocolat back and let him settle in last early on. Would Ice Chocolat have taken a more forward position without the troubled start? Considering he has run as a midpack closer in turf sprints, he was capable of sitting a little closer. 

Also notice how Ice Chocolat enters the stretch buried on the inside with not a lot of room to stretch his legs. Once Ice Chocolat switches out late in the stretch, he noticeably picks up momentum near the wire and finishes fourth, while only losing out on third to English Bee by a head.

Unfortunately, Ice Chcolat loses Prat for this race, but he picks up another big-time jockey in Joel Rosario, who is a fine replacement. 

Even though Annapolis and Casa Creed remain big threats, the public will likely ignore Ice Chocolat and he looks close to them on overall ability.

Therefore, Ice Chocolat works as a win and place bet.

Win/place: 7 (at 5-1 or longer)