Saturday plays: Use this key in Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

Mawj heads into the Grade 1, $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday as the morning-line favorite off her sharp European form. But the stretch out to nine furlongs brings up the old handicapping rule of staying away from favorites with no experience at the race distance. Perhaps one of the other European invaders can win the race instead.

First, here are some thoughts on an allowance optional claiming race for 2-year-olds featuring a familiar stakes experienced runner in Seize the Grey.

Keeneland Race 3: Allowance-optional claiming

Seize the Grey drops back into allowance company after finishing a closing third in the off-the-turf Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga and fourth in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs following an odd stretch run. In the latter race, Seize the Grey had trouble keeping a straight line.

Surprisingly, trainer D. Wayne Lukas has decided to take it slow and run him in this optional claiming race instead of the Breeders’ Cup. If Seize the Grey improves off his Iroquois form while eliminating the drifting problem in the stretch, he should handle this field at a value price.

Lightline is listed as the morning line favorite thanks to his big 13 3/4-length romp in a maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis. With trainer Brad Cox behind Lightline, he will certainly grab a significant amount of money.

Seize the Grey’s graded-stakes experience and higher odds make him preferable. Take the son of Arrogate to win at 3-1 or higher.

Win: 3 (at 3-1 or longer)

Place: 3 (if Lightline is overbet in this pool)

Keeneland Race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

Both Mawj and Elusive Princess are imperfect fillies to rely on betting-wise. Yet, each of these entries will attract significant wagering dollars.  

In Mawj’s last start, which came back in May overseas, she took the 1000 Guineas Stakes (G1) at Newmarket in an impressive manner by turning back the challenge of the sharp Tahiyra for a half-length win.

However, Mawj lacks experience beyond one mile in eight starts. The inexperience is notable because she starts as the morning line favorite.

Elusive Princess made a successful transition to racing in North America by capturing the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G3) by a clear 3 1/4 lengths. This effort came after a good fifth-place finish in the Prix de Diane (G1) at Chantilly and a close runner-up finish in the Prix Saint-Alary (G1).

But the cutback to nine furlongs might hurt Elusive Princess’ chances, as her last five starts came in races with distances longer than this race. 

One interesting European alternative is Lindy, who faded to eighth in the Prix de Diane after running close to the pace early on.

In that same race, Elusive Princess made a strong late bid to finish fifth.

After that fading run at Chantilly, Lindy was transferred to trainer Brendan Walsh in America. Walsh put this filly back on track at Kentucky Downs in an optional claimer, which she took in an easy manner by a modest margin. 

Lindy won more impressively than the 1 1/4-length margin suggests though, and now she enters this spot off that confidence booster. 

Can Lindy handle nine furlongs? Although she faded in the Prix de Diane, the distance of that race was a bit too far. She deserves one more shot to prove that she can handle a distance longer than one mile.

Another interesting shipper from Europe is Sounds of Heaven, who ran a strong third in the Coronation Stakes (G1) at the Royal Ascot meet, before a more puzzling sixth-place finish in the Prix Rothschild (G1) at Deauville in France.

Sounds of Heaven owns good speed, although she might need to duel with Heavenly Sunday if she ends up using that speed in this spot.

Lindy is the trifecta key on top, while those other three names work as the underneath horses. The trifecta features all horses based in Europe either now or previously.

Win: 6 (at 9-2 or longer)

Trifecta: 6 over 2,4,7 over 2,4,7