Saturday plays: Cox has rising star to key in Thistledown double

With Gerardo Corrales replacing injured jockey Jareth Loveberry, Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s makes his much-awaited return in the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby at Thistledown on Saturday, but he will face a challenge from Bishops Bay, a rising star in the Brad Cox stable who is improving quickly and will start at longer odds despite his connections.  

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One race earlier on the card is the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline Stakes, which features a fast pace and vulnerable favorite in Interstatedaydream.

The two races appear attractive enough to play the late double.  

Thistledown race 11: Lady Jacqueline Stakes

On paper, the early pace is bound to heat up with speed types such as Red Hot Lass, Secret Fix and Candy Island present to contest each other up front. If the favorite Interstatedaydream tries to flash her speed, she will likely weaken as she usually competes in races with slower pace scenarios.

One stalker who may capitalize on the leaders weakening is Sixtythreecaliber, who enters this race off a career-best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned when second in the Shawnee Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs to Idiomatic. Sixtythreecaliber made a nice move on the far turn before being repelled.

If Sixtythreecaliber repeats the speed figure in this spot, it should result in the win. Interstatedaydream never has run a final 120 on TimeformUS.

In case the race sets up more for a closer, then Le Da Vida is another one to use as she recently tried to close against a slow pace when finishing third to Interstatedaydream in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (G3) at Pimlico.

Le Da Vida needed to come from last in the six-horse field, although she was only three lengths away through the opening quarter in 24.35 and half in 48.93 seconds. Even though the gap was not large, Interstatedaydream had every advantage as the pacesetter through those slow fractions and could beat only a closing Le Da Vida by one length in the stretch. 

Forget about the 108 earned by Le Da Vida on TimeformUS. When the pace runs slow, the speed figure become less useful for handicapping purposes. She is capable of a better speed figure. Imagine if Le Da Vida receives a more reasonable pace up front or even a fast-pace scenario. With a clear trip she is supposed to catch Interstatedaydream this time.

Sixtythreecaliber and Le Da Vida are the two runners to use.

Daily double: 4,6 with 3

Thistledown race 12: Ohio Derby (G3)

Two Phil’s holds the class advantage having been the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, and he earned extra points for surviving the blazing early pace. However, horses who hit the board in the run for the roses generally become over-bet in their next few starts even past Triple Crown season.

Every handicapper saw the trip of Two Phil’s, and that takes away the advantage of knowing he endured the fast pace and battled Mage.

Bishops Bay never ran in the Kentucky Derby and lacks a graded-stakes win at this point. Regardless, Bishops Bay went to battle with one of the best 3-year-olds in Arcangelo when he lost by a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont.

Toward the wire, Bishops Bay lost focus for a second, and Arcangelo took advantage of that moment to prevail.

Arcangelo went on to capture the Belmont Stakes while beating 3-year-olds such as the division leader Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire and Hit Show.

Bishops Bay still ran a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat. That is within range of the 123 by Two Phil’s. Before the Derby the best dirt TimeformUS figure from Two Phil’s was only a 108, although Two Phil’s also ran a 121 when he won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on synthetic.

Also note Bishops Bay won his career debut in February over his stablemate First Mission in a maiden special weight at Fair Grounds. Two months later First Mission won the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland in only his third career start in April. He was supposed to start in the Preakness as the second choice before a forced scratch. 

Based on those two races, Bishops Bay most likely owns the same ability as Two Phil’s. At a minimum he will give a stiff challenge to Two Phil's at a slightly better price, which is enough to give him the nod from a betting standpoint.

Bishops Bay is the single.

Win: 3 at 5-2 or longer.