Saturday plays: Keeneland Turf Mile, Breeders' Futurity and more

Because of its stakes-filled cards and competitive fields, Keeneland always brings happiness to many handicappers every April and October.

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On Saturday, Keeneland hosts five different Breeders’ Cup prep races, highlighted by the Grade 1, $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 1, $750,000 Keeneland Turf Mile to cap off a challenging Pick 5 sequence.

Here are thoughts on those five races.  

Keeneland Race 6: Woodford Stakes (G2)

At first glance, the most reliable option is Extravagant Kid, who exits a bad 14th-place finish in the July Cup at Newmarket in England. He gets a pass for the odd clunker overseas. Even though this is an 8-year-old gelding, he still packs a punch at his old age.

In his two prior starts, Extravagant Kid won the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) at Meydan and also ran third in the King’s Stand Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot.

Last year, Extravagant Kid was second by half a length in this race, before finishing a closing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Keeneland.

Golden Pal is a logical win candidate as well. He also exits a bad race overseas after finishing seventh in the Nunthorpe Stakes (G1) at York in England. Before that, he won the Quick Call Stakes (G3) at Saratoga in July and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November on this course.

Firecrow faded to fourth in his most recent start in the Turf Monster Stakes (G3) at Parx Racing, but he was also pace compromised. He deserves a close look too. 

Two starts ago, Firecrow won the Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes at Pimlico. If the two obvious choices do not fire, then Firecrow is capable of winning.

Top selection: No. 6 Extravagant Kid (5-2)

Contender: No. 2 Golden Pal (4-5)

Best value: No. 4 Firecrow (9-2)

Keeneland Race 7: Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G3)

This race offers the chance to bet on a possible loose leader in Inthemidstofbiz. Inthemidstofbiz can stalk if necessary, but she prefers to lead in most cases. On paper, there is not a whole lot of other speed to stop her.

Inthemidstofbiz took last year’s edition of this race by three lengths after stalking the pace in the opening quarter. Before the TCA win, she had won the Satin and Lace Stakes at Presque Isle Downs to prepare for Keeneland.

This year, Inthemidstofbiz faded to fourth in the Satin and Lace to prepare for this year's TCA. She deserves a pass for the fade at Presque Isle though as TimeformUS labeled the pace as fast and she contested the pace.

Given the expected slow pace and her past success on this course, Inthemidstofbiz can rebound in this spot. She is the upset pick. 

If she fails, the obvious players are Estilo Talentoso and Bell’s the One.

Estilo Talentoso exits a fifth-place finish in the Ballerina Handicap (G1) at Saratoga against some tough opponents including Gamine. Before the Ballerina effort, she had not missed the board in 15 previous starts.

Bell’s the One closed for second in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill Downs only a few weeks ago. She lost by half a length to Sconsin. In her two races before the Open Mind, Bell’s the One won both the Roxelana Stakes and Honorable Miss Stakes (G2) at Saratoga.

Top selection: No. 3 Inthemidstofbiz (10-1)

Contenders: No. 4 Estilo Talentoso (5-2), No. 6 Bell’s the One (7-5)

Keeneland Race 8: First Lady Stakes (G1)

If forced to choose a top selection, Blowout is the best one to consider. This speedy filly is a candidate to secure an uncontested lead through a slow pace and might separate enough to hang on in the stretch run late.

Blowout faded to fourth in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) in her last start, but that is forgivable given she faced males and the winner Got Stormy, who has a love affair with Saratoga. Two starts ago, Blowout led all the way in the Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Princess Grace also deserves consideration based on her 7-6-1-0 record, however trainer Mike Stidham said she will be scratched from the race due to soft ground. In her three 2021 starts, she won the Penny Memorial Stakes (G3), Yellow Ribbon Stakes (G2) and the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes (G3).

Based on class, Althiqa appears capable of winning as well. In her two starts on this continent, she won the Just a Game Stakes (G1) and Diana Stakes (G1).

Empress Josephine exits a fourth-place finish in the Matron Stakes (G1) overseas at Leopardstown in Ireland. This European invader might fire in her first attempt on North American soil for trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Top selection: No. 9 Blowout (8-1)

Contenders: No. 3 Althiqa (7-2), No. 10 Princess Grace (6-1)

Live longshot: No. 2 Empress Josephine (10-1)

Keeneland Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

Don’t Wait Up shows two good efforts in his two career starts.

In his career debut at Saratoga, Don’t Wait Up came closing to lose by a nose to Power Agenda. Don’t Wait Up then broke his maiden over mud on Sept. 6 by two lengths over Commandperformance after setting the pace and finishing strong. Commandperformance went on to finish a great second to Jack Christopher in the Champagne Stakes (G1) with a 116 on TimeformUS.

Can Don't Wait Up route though? Upstart is fine as a route sire and the dam Lovely Marissa is a half-sister to the active Nasty, a stakes-winning turf router.

Don’t Wait Up is the top selection in this analysis, although he faces a talented opponent way on the outside in Classic Causeway.

Classic Causeway’s maiden win is excellent. He took command of the lead and overpowered the field under some mild urging in the stretch for a 6 1/2-length win. Classic Causeway shows a field-high 111 on TimeformUS for his effortless maiden score.

His pedigree looks good for routing, especially as a son of Giant’s Causeway, but it stinks as a bettor to take a short price on a runner attempting something new. Plus, he must clear the field from Post 13.

Regardless, Classic Causeway is a must-use in horizontal wagers.

Top selection: No. 5 Don’t Wait Up (9-2)

Contender: No. 13 Classic Causeway (5-1)

Keeneland Race 10: Keeneland Turf Mile (G1)

Similar to the First Lady, this is an evenly-matched and large field.

Space Traveller was pace compromised in both his fourth-place finish in the Mr. D Stakes (G1) at Arlington and second in the Woodbine Mile (G1). Perhaps he finally receives the right pace scenario in this Turf Mile group.

Also consider Order of Australia, who comes to North America early for trainer Aidan O’ Brien to compete in this Breeders' Cup prep race.

He is in great form this year. In Order of Australia’s two recent starts, he ran third in the Prix du Haras de Fresnay (G1) and second in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1). He lost to the undefeated Baaeed in the latter race. 

Somelikeithotbrown is the third preference.

His biggest win this year came in the Dinner Party Stakes (G2) at Pimlico. Afterwards, he ran second in both the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs and Mint Million Stakes (G3) at Kentucky Downs. 

Whenever this speedy horse secures the lead, he becomes tough to mow down in the stretch even if the pace goes a little fast. But, he must overcome the outside Post 13, and that is not an easy spot to clear.

Top selection: No. 4 Space Traveller (6-1)

Contenders: No. 10 Order of Australia (7-2), No. 13 Somelikeithotbrown (9/2)