Saturday plays: Ideas for Poinsettia late pick 4 at Oaklawn

Oaklawn Park offers some great dirt racing on Saturday, including the featured $150,000 Poinsettia Stakes for 3-year-olds. For bettors with a distaste for turf and synthetic, Oaklawn is the best meet to play this winter.

                     Click here for Oaklawn Entries, Results.

The intention of this post is to cover the late pick 4. After seeing how competitive the fields are in the Poinsettia late pick 4 though, these picks might turn into a pick 3 unless some scratches narrow it down.

Oaklawn Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming

Spa City is the most reliable runner in this group after winning a Starter Stakes at Indiana Grand by 3 3/4 lengths last month and finishing fourth by 2 1/4 lengths in a Sept. 26 Churchill Downs optional claiming race.

The Churchill race is notable because Beaver Hat and the pacesetter Fact Finding faded to sixth and seventh in a race that collapsed on the front end.

Spa City deserves respect for not giving up in the stretch.  

If the pace does heat up again though, Guest Suite can mow them down from behind. At least he is proven at the track and distance. Back in March, he won a one-mile allowance on this course over a similar field.

Sonneman lost to a decent closer in South Bend last time by 3/4 of a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. My Sixth Sense came off a layoff to run a mild fifth in a Keeneland optional claiming race. Both horses can run well enough at this level to win. 

Fact Finding has a small chance at slipping away and finding his old form. If one of the above selections scratch, consider using him.

Top selection: No. 6 Spa City (9/2)

Contenders: No. 1 Guest Suite (7/2), No. 2 My Sixth Sense (3-1), No. 3 Sonneman (5/2)

Substitute option (if one of the above scratches): No. 4 Fact Finding (6-1)

Oaklawn Race 8: Maiden Claiming $40k

Fan Club finished seventh in a Nov. 24 maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He only made his fourth start though and now he drops into a maiden claiming race at the $40k level in this spot.

Dropping to a claimer makes Fan Club dangerous. Plus, bettors get the familiar combination of trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux.  

The same angle applies to Saqeel, who drops to a maiden claimer after finishing third in a maiden special weight at Indiana Grand on Nov. 11. On the downside, Saqeel has run eight times and may not know how to win.                                                                                         

Namesake is a candidate to improve on the stretchout from six furlongs to one mile. He is a son of Bernardini out of the dam Funny Proposition, who won the 2013 Fleur de Lis Stakes (G3) to close out her nine-race career.

My Favorite Uncle has been popular at the claim box and now makes his debut for trainer Steve Asmussen after a runner-up finish in a Nov. 26 Churchill Downs maiden claimer at the $30k level. Ignore his turf races.

If there is room, also consider Holiday Ticket. On the stretchout to one mile, he might improve, although he is not a priority to use.  

Top selection: No. 5 Fan Club (3-1)

Contenders: No. 7 My Favorite Uncle (7/2), No. 8 Saqeel (5-1)

Best value: No. 2 Namesake (8-1)

Substitute option: No. 9 Holiday Ticket (6-1)

Oaklawn Race 9: Poinsettia Stakes

Flash of Mischief looks like the horse to beat based off his sharp recent form. In his last three starts, he won the Delta Mile Stakes and the St. Louis Derby. In between those races, he ran second in the nine-furlong Oklahoma Derby (G3) after setting the pace and weakening late.

If Flash of Mischief is not pressured too harshly, he is supposed to win on the cutback to a mile and one-sixteenth.

Defeater ran a non-threatening sixth in the same Oklahoma Derby while losing by 8 3/4 lengths. Then he won a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs by 7 1/4 lengths like a good horse. Note the second to Speaker’s Corner three starts ago at Saratoga as well. He deserves another chance.

Last Samurai turned in a surprising effort in the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx Racing. At 23-1, he only lost by half a length to Magic Michael, who won his next two Parx allowance races after outfinishing Last Samurai.

In his more recent start, Last Samurai ran third while “cutting back” to 1 1/4 miles in a Nov. 6 optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. He lost by 4 1/4 lengths, but watch the race closely. He was blocked for most of the stretch.

The common logic is that Last Samurai thrives on longer routes or marathons. Yet on June 6, Last Samurai won a mile and one-sixteenth turf allowance at Churchill Downs. He also broke his maiden at seven furlongs.

Top selection: No. 3 Flash of Mischief (5/2)

Contender: No. 2 Defeated (3-1)

Best value: No. 1 Last Samurai (5-1)

Oaklawn Race 10: Allowance

Phantom Dance shows consistent California form for trainer Phil D’Amato. In his two most recent starts, he won a starter allowance at Los Alamitos and closed for second to only lose by a neck in a Del Mar optional claiming race.

In this race, Phantom Dance will receive pace in front of him. As long as he can transfer the west coast form to Oaklawn, then he is a major threat.

Luck of the Draw makes his debut for trainer Robertino Diodoro after spending his recent time in Southern California as well. Two starts ago, he made use of stalking tactics to win a $25k claiming race at Santa Anita.

Also consider Quarterback Dak on the rail. He set the pace before fading to third in an Oct. 23 Keeneland optional claiming race with formidable competition. The winner Beau Luminaire won another optional claiming race at Churchill Downs, while the last-place Candy Tycoon also won an optional claimer at Churchill in his next start over a closing Ram.

The closer Gigging is another option. He is not fast on most days, but he did win a starter allowance at Churchill by 3 1/4 lengths on Sept. 24.

If it rains, then fit in the morning line favorite Palace Coup as well. Three of his five wins came on wet dirt, which makes him seem like a mud specialist. But if the track comes up fast, then save money by excluding the favorite.

Top selection: No. 9 Phantom Dance (4-1)

Contenders: No. 1 Quarterback Dak (10-1), No. 5 Luck of the Draw (10-1), No. 11 Gigging (8-1)

Rain pick: No. 3 Palace Coup (5/2)