Saturday plays: Jockey Club Gold Cup, more from Saratoga

As the Saratoga meet winds down, the track comes up with another graded-stakes filled card on Saturday highlighted by the Grade 1, $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is open to 3-year-olds and older. The six horses lined up will run 1 1/4 miles.

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There are three other graded stakes races on the undercard as well, including the Grade 2, $250,000 Prioress Stakes, Grade 3, $200,000 Saranac Stakes and Grade 1, $600,000 Flower Bowl Stakes. Here are the selections for the graded stakes races, plus one maiden race.

Saratoga Race 5: Prioress Stakes (G2)

Li’l Tootsie has been mismanaged with various route attempts, and more recently a turf experiment in the Galway Stakes which resulted in a ninth-place finish.

She cuts back to six furlongs now. The last time Li’l Tootsie ran six furlongs, she won a $100k optional claiming race at Churchill Downs.

At double-digit odds, Li’l Tootsie is worth playing to win or place, if both Oxana and Edie Meeny Miny Mo run too. She will need those two speedballs to set up the pace.  

Amendment Nineteen steps up to graded stakes competition off a nice second-place finish to Caramel Swirl in a local allowance race on July 24. On the switch to the Brad Cox barn, she might improve even more. She figures to enjoy a clear outside trip.

Souper Sensational brings class as the runner-up in the Test Stakes (G1). With that class comes a tradeoff for bettors, as she is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite.

Top selection: No. 3 Li’l Tootsie (12-1)

Contenders: No. 5 Amendment Nineteen (4-1), No. 6 Souper Sensational (6-5)

Saratoga Race 7: 2YO Maiden

Brigadier General faded to fifth after contesting the pace in a local Aug. 7 maiden race. But, the pace was a fast one and the winner Stellar Tap probably has a bright future.

At this point, there are two next-out winners from that Aug. 7 race. The runner-up Keepcalmcarryon won a nine-furlong maiden race on Aug. 26, while the last-place Martini’nmoonshine took a maiden turf route on Aug. 28 in gate-to-wire fashion.

There is always some guesswork in 2-year-old maiden races, but the first-time starters in this race do not look like monsters in their workouts shown on XBTV.

Brigadier General makes the third start of his career. Given the dam Mia and Molly is a half-sister to Croatian, who broke his maiden in a one-mile route, seven furlongs is not supposed to pose a problem. This is the time for him to graduate.

Top selection: No. 10 Brigadier General (5-1)

Suggested plays

Win: No. 10 Brigadier General

Double: No. 10 Brigadier General with #4 Never Surprised, #5 Founder and No. 6 Mohls

Saratoga Race 8: Saranac Stakes (G3)

This is not an easy race to single one horse.

Public Sector brings consistency with four exacta finishes in four starts this year. In his most recent start, he won the local Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) by one length. But, the price might not be that appealing.

Never Surprised won his first two career starts at Aqueduct as a 2-year-old, including the Central Park Stakes in late November. In his lone start as a 3-year-old, he was second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulfstream back in January. The disappointing part is that he ended up burning a lot of money as the 1/5 favorite in that runner-up finish.

Off the bench, Never Surprised might return as a stronger horse.

Founder lost to Public Sector with a sixth-place finish in an optional claiming race at Belmont in early June. The following month though, he did win the Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth. If he continues to improve, maybe he can turn the tables in his third career turf attempt.

Mohs lost by a nose to the Virginia Derby (G3) favorite Experienced in a June 21 maiden race at Delaware. Two starts later, Mohs won an allowance race at Monmouth. With two good turf efforts in two tries, there is no reason to knock him.

Top selection: #1 Public Sector (7/5)

Contenders: #4 Never Surprised (8/5), #5 Founder (4-1)

Live longshot: #6 Mohs (12-1)

Saratoga Race 11: Flower Bowl Stakes (G1)

War Like Goddess looks tough once again after winning the Glens Falls Stakes (G3) off the bench last month by 3 1/4 lengths over My Sister Nat. However, this field is not compromised of pushovers. There are new names for War Like Goddess to face.

Great Island displayed talent at an early point in her career by finishing second to Mean Mary in a maiden race at Keeneland. In her most recent start, she won the Matchmaker Stakes (G3) at Monmouth and now stretches out to 1 3/8 miles for the first time for trainer Chad Brown. She remains lightly-raced with only seven starts and might move forward now.

American Bridge arrives here as a Group 3 winner in Italy. In most cases, Italy-based runners are ignorable, but the familiar Peter Brant does own this filly. The point about the familiar owner is significant because Brant sends many horses to trainer Chad Brown and likely knows how to select good horses from overseas.

Coastana ran second to Higher Truth by 1 1/2 lengths two starts ago in an allowance race at Belmont. Higher Truth then was third in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) and second in the Saratoga Oaks (G3), which gives some credibility to Coastana.

Top selection: #3 War Like Goddess (4-5)

Contenders: #2 American Bridge (12-1), #6 Great Island (4-1)

Live longshot: #7 Coastana (15-1)

Saratoga Race 12: Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)

Max Player upset the Suburban Stakes (G2) field to win by a neck at 11-1.

His earlier starts this year were not great, but there are excuses. He made his first start off the bench in the Saudi Cup in February, and that was asking a lot of him to fire overseas off a layoff. Then in the Pimlico Special (G3), he was handed a poor scenario when Last Judgment led the field uncontested with moderate fractions on a biased track.

With his ability to sit close to the leader if necessary, he is versatile. If the pace goes too fast, Max Player can take back and run as a closer as well. 

Perhaps Max Player has moved forward as an older horse. 

Happy Saver has been a bit flat, but he might deserve another shot.

Even though he won his return race at Belmont on May 28, he only won by a length against moderate competition with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a slow figure for a Grade 1-level horse. Granted, the first start off the bench is forgivable.

In Happy Saver’s second 2021 start, he ran fourth for nearly the entire race in the Suburban at Belmont, before finally nabbing third at the end and losing by 2 ¾ lengths to the upset winner Max Player, who he must face again this week.

Given he makes his third start off the bench, won the Belmont version of this race last October and owns successful experience at Saratoga, Happy Saver is playable defensively. This is his last chance before it becomes fair to question whether he failed to step forward as a 4-year-old. He needs to show he can threaten the leaders at this level.  

Top selection: #2 Max Player (5/2)

Contender: #4 Happy Saver (9/5)