Saturday plays: Chilukki Stakes and undercard, plus Native Diver
Plenty of good races are in store for racing followers this weekend. At Churchill Downs, bettors can look forward to a quality edition of the one-mile Grade 3, $300,000 Chilukki Stakes for 3-year-old fillies and older. As for west coast stakes action, Del Mar is running the nine-furlong Grade 3, $100,000 Native Diver Stakes for 3-year-olds and older.
For turf fans, there is also the Grade 3, $200,000 Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct, but this blog will stick to covering dirt racing this week.
Here are some thoughts and selections for those two Grade 3 stakes races on dirt, as well as two races on the Churchill Downs undercard.
Churchill Downs Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming
A decent amount of pace exists in this race with Palace Avenger, Ain’t No Elmers and Dontletsweetfoolya present.
If the pace builds up, Li’l Tootsie can take advantage. She exits a third-place finish in the Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, where she lost by only 1 3/4 lengths to Cilla. Souper Sensational was the runner-up.
Li’l Tootsie receives the benefit of Lasix again in this spot after going without the medication for two races. Trainer Tom Amoss and jockey James Graham also work well together. According to TimeformUS, they win at a 21 percent rate out of a sample of 201 tries over the past year.
With those points in mind, Li’l Tootsie is the choice.
Headland deserves some consideration for the win spot as well. She had a difficult task in a local June 17 optional claimer when Ain’t No Elmers had an uncontested lead over a speed-biased track. To Headland’s credit, she managed to close from fifth to second in that race.
While Headland took a minor break after that race, she is probably ready with eight works dating back to Sept. 14. Headland owns a little more tactical speed than Li’l Tootsie too.
Top selection: No. 4 Li’l Tootsie (4-1)
Contender: No. 5 Headland (7/2)
Churchill Downs Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming
Sun Path had a fast start to her career last year when she broke her maiden on this course by three lengths and dominated an allowance race at Fair Grounds by 12 3/4 lengths. After that, the sky was the limit.
The Kentucky Oaks trail did not pan out though after a fourth-place finish in the Silverbulletday Stakes and third in the Honeybee Stakes (G3).
Sun Path then went on the shelf and now makes her return for trainer Brad Cox.
Even with the layoff, Sun Path is the choice. This is a good filly likely meant for big races down the road. She can handle this field.
For value underneath, consider Compelling Smile and Farsighted. Compelling Smile is a deep closer, while Farsighted is a presser/stalker.
Top selection: No. 3 Sun Path (2-1)
Underneath: No. 5 Compelling Smile (15-1), No. 6 Farsighted (15-1)
Bets
Win: 3
Exacta wheel: 3 / 5,6
Churchill Downs Race 10: Chilukki Stakes (G3)
The closer Obligatory shows the most class in this field.
Back in April on this track, Obligatory closed from 12th and 9 ¾ lengths behind to capture the Eight Belles Stakes (G2) at seven furlongs. One start later, she closed for second in the one-mile Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont, only losing by a half-length to Kentucky Oaks runner-up Search Results.
In September, Obligatory also finished second by 2 ½ lengths to Clairiere in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx Racing after taking up the pressing position through a sluggish pace set by Always Carina.
On the step down to a Grade 3, Obligatory is supposed to handle this field, although her closing style is a liability because of traffic and pace issues. From Post 7 though, Joel Rosario can keep her in the clear.
As for underneath options, She Can’t Sing deserves respect off her local 5 ¼-length optional claiming win on Oct. 2. Also, Princess Causeway does show two past optional claiming wins over this track. Handicappers might need to search for those races, as her recent form is all on turf.
If Obligatory is 5/2 though, that is enough value for only a win bet.
Top selection: No. 7 Obligatory (5/2)
Underneath: No. 1 She Can’t Sing (6-1), No. 8 Princess Causeway (6-1)
Bets
Win: 7
Exacta wheel: 7 / 1,8
Del Mar Race 8: Native Diver Stakes (G3)
Eight Rings shows the most class in this field.
In his most recent start, Eight Rings chased Life Is Good in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile before fading to fourth in the stretch. Back in July, Eight Rings also finished second by a neck to Dr. Schivel in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1). Both of those Grade 1 efforts came over this dirt track.
Surprisingly, Eight Rings used stalking tactics in the Bing Crosby in his runner-up finish. He is a stronger horse when allowed to lead alone.
Who is going to challenge Eight Rings early in this race?
As a speed horse used competing to sprints and middle distances, Ax Man likely owns the speed to duel with Eight Rings. But it seems unlikely trainer Bob Baffert will allow Eight Rings and Ax Man to hook up.
On the rail, Established owns speed. But in more cases than not, he ends up in the pressing or stalking position rather than setting the pace. He did break his maiden in pacesetting fashion, but will he really go for it here with Eight Rings and Ax Man to his outside? That is pace suicide.
Eight Rings is the top choice. In case Eight Rings stumbles or misses the break for any reason, then Ax Man could wire the field as well.
Top selection: No. 6 Eight Rings (7/2)
Contender: No. 7 Ax Man (6-1)
Bets
Win: 6