Saturday plays: Value horse can improve in Del Mar Debutante

Without the presence of trainer Bob Baffert, this edition of the Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Debutante Stakes contains almost no real standouts minus Dreamfyre, who is uncertain to handle seven furlongs. Given Dreamfyre will face pressure, the door is open to the other fillies.

Before diving into the Del Mar Debutante though, here is a double for two earlier races including a maiden special weight featuring a potential Baffert star and the $100,000 Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Del Mar race 4: Maiden special weight

Although the favorite Slider turned in a respectable debut by setting the pace under pressure and finishing second in a local July 29 maiden race, he now faces two Bob Baffert-trained first-timers and one of them looks loaded.

The loaded one is Utopian. This son of Curlin makes his career debut for Baffert, and the latter part of his Aug. 28 workout in company with Lake Superior is one to watch on XBTV. After the pair passes the grandstand and makes the turn, Utopian begins to separate from Lake Superior on the gallop out and the gap widens to a significant degree.

Even though Utopian’s sire is Curlin, this colt is bred to win early. He is a full brother to Ride On Curlin, who broke his maiden in his second start in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint. Ride On Curlin went to a successful 3-year-old campaign where he ran second in the 2014 Preakness Stakes.

Utopian faces the same five-and-a-half furlong distance in this maiden race. He drew well in Post 7, which should encourage him to take up an outside stalking position as Slider zips to the lead. Utopian might even end up pressing the morning line favorite if no other horse wants the duty.

With all those points in mind, Utopian is the single.

Win: 7 at 8-5 or longer

Double: 7 with 4,11

Del Mar race 5: Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf

Since Utopian is the key in this daily double, this leg can use some runners with mild odds to offset the expected low odds on the Baffert first-timer.

One interesting option is Double Bay, who exits a fast local five-furlong maiden turf sprint on Aug. 6 won by her stablemate Julias Dream. Double Bay finished a non-threatening fifth in that turf sprint, but she stretches out to one mile here and escapes her talented stablemate.

Perhaps the extra distance moves this filly forward. Double Bay’s most successful sibling Bayrir won the 2012 Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington Park. Bayrir made $560k by running solely in route races.

The other filly to use is Cailin Dana, who made a mild move to pick up second in a local five-furlong maiden turf sprint on Aug. 4. She lost by 1 1/4 lengths to Mysticism, who had an uncontested lead early on and never stopped running in the stretch after the comfortable lead.

From a pedigree standpoint, Cailin Dana is also supposed to thrive with the extra distance. Her dam Entrechat is a full sister to Doswell, who won the 2021 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park and $339k overall in his career.

Del Mar race 10: Del Mar Debutante (G1)

As stated above, the one standout filly is Dreamfyre. In two career races, Dreamfyre has made good use of her speed to capture both starts, including the Sorrento Stakes (G3) on Aug. 12 where she won by a widening 3 1/2 lengths.

However, Dreamfyre is not certain to handle seven furlongs. Plus, Dreamfyre faces other potential speed threats. From the Michael W. McCarthy barn, either Julias Dream or Pushiness figures to contest the speedy Dreamfyre for the lead.

With the pace scenario in mind, Chatalas deserves consideration at likely value odds. After stalking the pace from the outside, Chatalas won her career debut in a local 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint on July 30 with a steady, grinding motion in the stretch to prevail by half a length over the promising runner-up Barbara T.

Given that Chatalas ran for the first time, the mild speed figure is irrelevant. Also, the strong gallop out indicates this filly wants more distance than five-and-a-half furlongs. At some point, Chatalas will love route races.

For now, this daughter of Gun Runner stretches out to seven furlongs, and she will get first run on Dreamfyre if that filly finds the pace too hot.

Another potential stalker is Tamara, who won at first asking in a local Aug. 19 maiden race at six-and-a-half furlongs. She did not run any faster than Chatalas using TimeformUS Speed Figures, although she did earn a better speed figure on both Brisnet speed ratings and Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form. Most likely, there is not a lot of difference between the two fillies.

Tamara will probably become over bet as a daughter of the famous Beholder with trainer Richard Mandella and Spendthrift Farms as the connections. The well-known Mike Smith takes the mount as well.

Chatalas offers roughly the same ability and potential on paper at higher odds. Therefore, Chatalas makes sense as a win bet and even a place bet.

Win-place: 6 at 4-1 or longer