Saturday plays: Can Arklow win his third Turf Cup?

Exciting turf action continues at Kentucky Downs on Saturday with five graded stakes races, including the Grade 2, $1 million Kentucky Turf Cup and Grade 2, $600,000 Franklin-Simpson Stakes as the highlights of a lucrative day of racing.

               Click here for Kentucky Downs Entries, Results.

This post will focus on only those two graded stakes races. Can Arklow win his third Turf Cup in four tries? Are there any angles to help narrow down the Franklin-Simpson field?

Those are the questions to answer below.

Kentucky Downs Race 9: Calumet Turf Cup (G2)

Yes, Arklow can win his third Turf Cup. Handicappers do need to forgive his last two starts though, which both resulted in off-the-board finishes.

His sixth-place finish in the United Nations Stakes (G1) at Monmouth two months ago is easily forgivable.

Arklow clipped heels and stumbled at a critical point on the far side.

The incident put a halt to his momentum and chances to win.

Arklow still ran well enough to end up sixth.  

As for Arklow’s seventh in the Del Mar Handicap (G2), that is less forgivable. One explanation is that jockey Florent Geroux left his mount with too much work left by lagging in 11th and last throughout the race and making one run in the stretch. He only lost by 1 3/4 lengths at the end, but knowing he could only finish seventh is still disappointing.

Even though Arklow’s Del Mar effort is not great, he gets a pass.

Arklow began the year with a win in the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, which means he is probably still in good form despite his older age. Now, Arklow returns to a course he loves and a race he excels in, as shown by his past 3-2-1-0 record in the Turf Cup.

If the speed horses do not scratch, Arklow is the single. But, if either Channel Cat or Tide of the Sea scratch, then also upgrade the remaining pacesetter’s chances.

Bettors can get creative for the underneath spots.

Imperador closed for second in the United Nations at 23-1, and he still enters this race as a double-digit option at 15-1 on the morning line.

Crossfirehurricane was eighth by two lengths in the Del Mar Handicap. Like Arklow, he did some running in the stretch and only lost by a small margin. He is 20-1 on the morning line. 

Glynn County did not receive any pace in the United Nations or Mr. D Stakes (G1) at Arlington in his last two starts. In the latter race, he still made up enough ground for third to only lose by three lengths. At 15-1, he is worth including underneath as well.

All three of those double-digit runners are usable in the second or third slots.

Top selection: No. 5 Arklow (3-1)

Underneath: No. 1 Imperador (15-1), No. 2 Crossfirehurricane (20-1), No. 9 Glynn County (15-1)

Suggested plays

Exacta key wheel: 5 / 1,2,9

Double: 5 / 3,6,9 (emphasis on 3 and 6 in the latter race)

Note: If Channel Cat or Tide of the Sea scratch, the other one could wire the field.

Kentucky Downs Race 10: Franklin-Simpson Stakes (G2)

Next is an intriguing Wesley Ward-trained colt who has had trouble finishing off races in his current campaign. Yet, he is a contender here.

Three starts ago, Next contested a fast pace in the American Turf Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs and faded to 11th late. Because of the fast and contested pace, the fade is forgivable.  

Two starts ago, Next wired the field by 3 ¾ lengths in the War Chant Stakes, also at Churchill Downs. Kentucky Derby also-ran Helium was third in the same race.

In his most recent start, Next set the pace in the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) at Saratoga. According to TimeformUS, the fractions were not fast. Watching the replay though, it is clear he did receive some pressure from Wolfie’s Dynaghost, which makes the late fade more forgivable.

After the first turn, Next and Wolfie’s Dynaghost briefly separated from the field together.

Wolfie’s Dynaghost then backed off a little bit, as Next continued to lead.

Next led the field into the stretch before fading to fourth in the late stages. He lost by four lengths, which is not terrible given he did face some pressure in the first half. Meanwhile, his pace pursuer Wolfie’s Dynaghost ended up sixth by 7 1/4 lengths.

In this spot, Next cuts back to 6 1/2 furlongs on a course he broke his maiden on. A quality speed horse that fades at route distances is always dangerous on the cutback, especially on a course he had success on.

For a longer price, also think about County Final.

County Final faded to fourth in last year’s Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2). Maybe this runner is a different horse now though. From a physical standpoint, he is different as the connections decided to geld him before his return.

In the seven-furlong Greenwood Stakes on Aug. 14 at Woodbine, County Final made a nice move to finish second by a head to the familiar Gretzky the Great, who was fifth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park on synthetic back in March.

If County Final can move forward off that career-best effort, he can win.

The last horse to discuss is Omaha City, who did some real running in the stretch run of the Quick Call Stakes (G3) at Saratoga to finish second by three lengths to Golden Pal, who many observers consider one of the best turf sprinters in training.

In this race, Omaha City is still arguably a value at 20-1 on the morning line. Assuming those odds hold, he is one to include as a backup in multi-race wagers.

Top selection: No. 6 Next (5-1)

Contender: No. 3 County Final (8-1)

Live longshot: No. 9 Omaha City (20-1)