Saturday plays: Betting the Risen Star card at Fair Grounds

With the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes anchoring the card at Fair Grounds on Saturday, bettors can expect a strong set of races to play. Even the maiden and optional claiming fields are filled with quality.

                  Click here for Fair Grounds Entries, Results.

Here are selections and bets for select races earlier in the card, as well as a recap of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes and Risen Star Stakes plays.

Fair Grounds Race 4: 3YO Maiden

The first-timer Can’t Hush This shows a short worktab for his career debut, including three straight bullets at Delta Downs starting on Dec. 28. His last three works were done locally at Fair Grounds.

A short worktab is a good sign for a first-time starter because it signals confidence by the connections. Good horses do not stay in the barn too long if they can make money racing. 

Trainer Tom Amoss excels at Fair Grounds. TimeformUS gives Amoss an excellent 95 rating on this course and also puts the “hot” label on his local entries.

Can’t Hush This can start the day off well with a good debut.

Win: 8

Fair Grounds Race 6: 3YO Maiden

If possible, find a way to watch Vinco’s local career debut on Jan. 22 in a six-furlong maiden sprint. Vinco initially runs with the field on the inside around midpack, but he soon becomes shuffled back and ends up ninth and last.  

After the early trouble, Vinco made a strong bid in the stretch to pick up second. He ended up losing by only 2 ¾ lengths to Ferociously.

In this spot, Vinco might improve on the stretchout to one and one-sixteenth miles. Note the second dam Welcome Surprise, a half-sister to legendary A.P. Indy, who is one of the greatest stamina influences.

With a cleaner trip, expect Vinco to run well.

Win: 5

Pick 3: 5 / 1,2 / 1,4,6

Fair Grounds Race 7: Colonel Power Stakes

Cowan won via disqualification in the local Duncan F. Kenner Stakes on Jan. 22 after Just Might interfered with him when crossing over early in the race.

Just Might went on to cross the wire first by 2 ¾ lengths over Cowan. He also enters this race with the pace advantage as the probable lone speed.

Cowan owns enough tactical speed to keep up from the inside. In addition, the high-percentage jockey Joel Rosario takes the call again.

Just Might remains the most likely winner at a short price, but if Cowan enjoys a cleaner trip this time, he can turn the tables.

Fair Grounds Race 8: Allowance Optional Claimer

Cyberknife steps down in class after a failed attempt on the Derby trail. He made a decent move on the far turn in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) before fading to sixth.

Against lesser opponents here, Cyberknife is an obvious win threat in this optional claiming race. He also gets Lasix again. Expect Cyberknife to follow the expected leader Peaceful Waters and strike when the time is right.

With that said, Peaceful Waters might hold on. In his most recent start, he led from gate to wire to break his maiden locally on Jan. 22. Besides Cyberknife, a mild speed horse, there is no other pace threat entered.

Also consider Strava, who stretches to a two-turn route for the first time after finishing second in a local Jan. 15 optional claimer. Pedigree-wise, Strava is supposed to love the extra distance. His dam Catch My Drift won the nine-furlong 2015 Summer Colony Stakes at Saratoga by 6 ¼ lengths.

Fair Grounds Race 12: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

As stated in a previous post, Awake At Midnyte holds the high TimeformUS Speed Figure and BRIS Speed Rating in this race. Both of those numbers come from her strong runner-up finish in the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2), where she only lost by ¾ of a length to the Bob Baffert-trained Under the Stars.

Given her sire Nyquist and damsire Union Rags, Awake At Midnyte should handle the stretchout to one and one-sixteenth miles.

Awake At Midnyte is a worthy single.

Note: The double listed below will add in Epicenter in the second leg. In the previous post, it only showed Slow Down Andy as the Risen Star option.

Win: 9

Double: 9 / 10

Double: 9 / 5 (for less money)

Fair Grounds Race 13: Risen Star Stakes (G2)

Despite running green in the stretch, Slow Down Andy won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December by one length over the talented Messier, who exploded next time with a 15-length win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2).

Messier’s 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure for winning the Robert B. Lewis looks massive compared to the rest of the 3-year-olds in this crop. Slow Down Andy does not need to reach a 127 to win the Risen Star. If he takes a reasonable step forward though off his 110 at Los Alamitos, he can win this race.

Epicenter is also a threat to wire this field on the lead. While his second-place finish in the Lecomte is slightly disappointing, he did set fast fractions and understandably became a little tired in the stretch.

Smile Happy carries a 2 for 2 record, including a 3 ¼-length win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) back in November. He is a win contender if he can step forward as a 3-year-old, although the public figures to overbet him.